SunSirs: Pronóstico para las tendencias de los precios del carbón de esta semana

The Bohai Rim port market remains relatively stable, with upstream quotations holding firm while downstream demand remains weak. Price pressure is severe, and transactions are sparse. Coal prices in major producing regions are currently mixed, with end-users maintaining only sporadic purchases. Overall demand provides limited support to the market, leaving insufficient momentum for sustained price increases. However, rapid inventory declines at Bohai Rim ports, coupled with inverted shipping costs, have reduced upstream willingness to sell at low prices. Traders' sentiment has generally improved, with increased hoarding and reluctance to sell, pushing the market into a sideways trading phase.

Constrained by inverted pithead-to-port shipping costs and sluggish demand at Bohai Rim ports, market suppliers show limited enthusiasm for port shipments, resulting in overall low port intake levels. Following a new cold snap, temperatures in many southern regions fell below seasonal averages. Coastal power plants saw seasonal increases in daily coal consumption, while downstream long-term contract shipments remained stable. Port outflows fluctuated at mid-range levels, significantly outperforming inflows and driving continued inventory drawdowns. However, data indicates that overall inventory at Bohai Rim ports remains 3.3 million tons higher than the same period last year. Except for Qinhuangdao Port, other ports still hold excessively high levels. Furthermore, as supply gradually recovers and downstream demand shows limited improvement, the sustained upward momentum in coal prices lacks resilience.

La producción y los envíos de las regiones productoras de carbón en el primer semestre del mes mostraron una ligera contracción en la oferta. Los volúmenes de transporte en el Ferrocarril de Daqin se mantuvieron débiles, con envíos diarios que se mantuvieron en niveles bajos a medianos. La demanda de carbón térmico continúa aumentando, con el consumo diario en las centrales eléctricas costeras en ocho provincias que asciende a 2,2 - 2,4 millones de toneladas. Los inventarios de carbón en los puertos de Bohai Rim se están agotando rápidamente, y la situación de oferta y demanda relativamente floja en el mercado del carbón seguirá mejorando. Se espera que los precios del carbón mantengan su tendencia al alza a corto plazo. Mirando hacia el futuro, el suministro de carbón de las regiones productoras puede contraerse mes a mes, y restaurar la línea Daqin a su capacidad completa sigue siendo un gran desafío. A medida que llega el período más frío y más frío del año, es poco probable que la demanda de carbón térmico se debilite significativamente. Junto con la continua reducción de inventarios en los puertos alrededor del Mar de Bohai, se espera que la situación de oferta y demanda relativamente floja en el mercado del carbón mejore. A mediados de mes, se prevé que los precios del carbón en el mercado extiendan su tendencia al alza.

Port coal prices showed a phased increase in the first half of the month. However, with the gradual recovery of Dazhong Railway's transport capacity and rising temperatures in East China next week, the market will stabilize, and the pace of price increases will slow. Furthermore, as prices approach the cost-effectiveness threshold and face potential pressure from high inventories, domestic coal prices will gradually come under pressure, entering a phase of stagnation and stabilization. However, this year's coldest period, the “Three Nines” (三九), began on January 8 and will last until January 16. Together with the subsequent “Four Nines” (四九), this period constitutes the core coldest phase of the year. It is anticipated that residential heating demand will continue to rise in the latter half of this month. However, as the Spring Festival approaches in late January, some industrial enterprises in southern China will gradually suspend operations for the holiday, impacting industrial electricity consumption. Consequently, the growth in daily coal consumption at power plants is expected to be limited. Furthermore, with contracted coal supplies remaining stable, power plants' demand for spot coal purchases is unlikely to increase significantly, providing only limited support for coal prices.

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