According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of first-class white sugar at the beginning of this month was 5,892 RMB/ ton, and the average price of first-class white sugar at the end of the month was 5,786 RMB/ ton, down 1.80% and up 1.99% compared with the same period last year.

Market analysis

The performance of domestic sugar consumption in the traditional peak season is extremely poor. The sales data in July hit a new low since the eight pressing seasons, and the peak season is not prosperous. Although it is still in the peak season of Mid Autumn Festival and national day stock preparation, the consumption situation reported by the spot end is poor and the transaction is light. The estimated consumption is about 1 million tons lower than that of last year. And from the seasonal perspective, the consumption is generally poor from October to November after the recent holiday stock preparation.

Consumption is weak, imports are increasing in advance, and the national industrial inventory has rebounded rapidly recently. In July, the national industrial inventory was at the highest level since the last five pressing seasons. We believe that in the second half of the year, with the increase of imports, the startup rate of sugar processing plants is expected to remain high, and the inventory pressure is increased compared with the first half of the year.

The global sugar production is expected to increase by 3 million tons to 178 million tons. Among them, the production of sugar and alcohol in central and southern Brazil is slightly reduced by 500,000 tons due to the expected decline. The rainfall in India is moderate and the output in the new season is expected to increase by 500,000 tons. The purchase price of sugarcane in Thailand is high and the weather is normal, resulting in an increase of 1.4 million tons. In addition, China, Russia, Pakistan and Australia also have a small increase in output. On the consumption side, under the special international situation, sugar producing countries have restricted exports, which has significantly boosted short-term demand. The global consumption in the 2022/2023 pressing season is expected to increase by 1.6% to 177.8 million tons, and the global supply will change from a small shortage in the previous pressing season to a small surplus of 200,000 tons.

Market forecast

The domestic import pressure in the second half of the year is large, the peak season is not prosperous, and the consumption is weak. It is expected that the trend of China Zhengzhou suger will be dominated by a weak trend.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.