Price trend

On April 11, the spot price of white granulated sugar was 5,854 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

In the 21/22 crushing season, the domestic white granulated sugar production is estimated to drop below 10 million tons, and the gap between production and demand widened. However, due to the large amount of inventory carryover at the beginning of the period, the overall supply and demand in this season is still loose.

The domestic white granulated sugar price will be mainly driven by the external market, and it may still be difficult to make profits by importing outside the quota. At present, the production situation in the northern hemisphere is basically clear, and the negative effects of increased production in India and Thailand have been largely absorbed by the market.

In the second quarter, the focus of the market will turn to the crushing production situation in the new crushing season in Brazil. The white granulated sugar mills are expected to postpone the start of crushing, and under the condition of high crude oil prices, the high alcohol-white granulated sugar price difference will prompt the white granulated sugar mills to use more white granulated sugarcane to produce ethanol in the early stage of the crushing season. This may be bullish for the market.

Market outlook

In the second quarter, the international white granulated sugar price is expected to fluctuate slightly, and it is expected that the price trend of white granulated sugar will be dominated by narrow fluctuations.

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