According to the price monitoring from SunSirs, the prices of domestic polyester FDY will stop falling near the end of October, and the recent quotations of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will be stable. On October 28, the average market price of polyester POY (150D/48F) was 7,174RMB/t, down 29.68% year on year; the average market price of polyester DYT (150D/48F low elastic) was 8,895RMB/t, down 25.23% year on year; the average market price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) was 7,473RMB/t, down 27.39% year on year.
The spot market prices of raw material PTA continued to decline. On October 28, the average market price was 4,955RMB/t, decreasing 31.33% year on year. New production capacity is about to be put in, PTA's substantial increase in positions made it swing lower, and futures got a new low again. On the 28th, the TAM significantly increased their positions and went down, TA2011 closed at 4,818RMB/t, 114RMB/t (2.31%) lower compared with the previous trading day. In the short term, even if there are multiple units in the supply side needing maintenance and the starting load is reduced to around 84%, PTA is still expected to present a weak pattern due to the pessimistic expectation of the market on the future supply and demand of PTA.
|
Enterprise Name |
Device Capacity (10,000 t/year) |
Device’s Recent Change |
|
Ningbo Yisheng |
200 |
Overhaul in Nov |
|
Jiaxing Petrochemicals |
150 |
Overhaul in Nov |
|
Hailun Petrochemicals |
120 |
Overhaul in Dec |
|
Hanbang Petrochemicals |
220 |
In shutdown and overhaul (Oct 25) for 20 days |
|
Hengli Dalian |
220 |
In shutdown and overhaul (Oct 27 ) |
|
Jialong Petrochemical |
60 |
In shutdown and overhaul (Aug 2); Restart date to be determined. |
The downstream terminal market remains tepid. Although textile enterprises keep normal start-up, they mainly process orders and maintain fixed customer sources. The raw materials needed for new orders are also purchased as they are needed. At present, the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 78%, and the terminal market is cautious.
Analysts from SunSirs believe that the current PTA cost side has the expectation of new devices, the overall trend swings and becomes weak without significant upward assistance. The downstream and terminal factories are expected to remain relatively cautious in the future and maintain the main demand for replenishment. Therefore, it is expected that the polyester FDY will continue to stabilize in the short term.
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