Peru plans to cancel 27 mining permits, but new production will not arrive until 2031-2032

Key Data

• 27 permits: Peru plans to cancel mining permit requirements

• 1 million tons: Target annual copper production increase by 2031-2032

• 530,000 tons: Copper concentrate deficit in 2026

• $93: LME spot copper premium over three-month futures

• 2.77 million tons: Peru's 2025 copper production record

• 2.5-2.7 million tons: Peru's 2026 projected production

Event: Peru aims to boost production, but the solution is too late for immediate needs

On September 24, Peru's Energy and Mining Minister Guillermo Shinno stated:

• Has identified 27 permits to cancel out of approximately100 mining permit requirements;

• Plans to add approximately1 million tons of annual copper production within 5 to 6 years, that is, by2031-2032;

• Approximately20 mining companies have contacted the government.

The 1 million ton increase is equivalent to approximately4% of the 23.6 million tons of global mine production in 2026 forecast by ICSG.

The key issue is that the new production will only come online by2031-2032.

Market: 530,000-ton deficit, spot premium of $93

• CERA/S&P Global estimates that the copper concentrate deficit in 2026 will be approximately530,000 tons;

• On September 25, LME spot copper closed at$14,740 per ton, which is$93 higher than the three-month futures price;

• The spot premium indicates recent tight supply;

• ICSG lowered its 2026 global mine production growth forecast from2.3% to1.6%;

• The 2026 refined copper production growth is expected to be only0.4%, with pressure mainly falling on custom smelters.

Conclusion: Peru's new supply is unlikely to change the copper market landscape in 2026.

Production: 2.77 million tons in 2025, may fall to 2.5-2.7 million tons in 2026

Peru is the world's third-largest copper producer:

• 2023:2.755 million tons

• 2024:2.736 million tons

• 2025:2.77 million tons, a record high

• 2026 projection:2.5-2.7 million tons

The reasons for the decline:falling ore grades + repeated social conflicts.

Approximately$7 billion in mining investment is planned for 2026, but most of it will be used to maintain existing mines rather than increase production.

Key thresholds: Three questions determine who benefits

Falling ore grades and social conflicts are not on the permit reform list.

Whether developers can benefit depends on three questions:

1. Is the next approval on the27-permit list?

2. Community agreements signed?

3. Environmental studies completed?

Only by meeting all three criteria can a project become an asset worth pursuing. Projects still waiting for community approval will not receive a boost just from the reform news.

Other information:

• First Quantum hopes to advance the La Granja project, which the government estimates will cost$2.4 billion;

• Currently, the permits are only "identified" for cancellation, not formally revoked;

• The Ministry of Mines meeting is not a bidding process, and no acquisition premium has emerged yet.

One-sentence conclusion

Peru's1 million tons is a story for 2031-2032.
The 530,000-ton deficit in 2026 will still need to be covered by existing supply.
Peru's copper mine developers are still medium-to-long-term investment targets.

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