According to monitoring by the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic market for 1# antimony ingots experienced fluctuating gains from September 1 to September 14, 2026; the average market price rose from 102,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 105,000 RMB/ton on the 14th, marking a cumulative increase of 2.94%.

During the first half of September, the domestic market for #1 antimony ingots exhibited a trend of slight, fluctuating gains, demonstrating considerable resilience. Throughout this two-week period, a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors played out, with positive drivers ultimately prevailing. On the supply side, the implementation of overseas export bans on antimony ore and the reluctance of domestic smelters to sell—driven by operating losses—combined to support a steady rise in prices. On the demand side, while the intensity of peak-season stockpiling was limited and cost pressures at the end-user level constrained the extent of the price increase, these factors did not significantly suppress the market trend. Overall, the market remained strong with prices steadily climbing, interspersed with periods of consolidation; downstream buyers engaged in rational, on-demand purchasing, resulting in a modest upward trajectory.

Supply Side:

Regarding overseas markets, quotations for antimony ingots rose slightly during this period, with steady essential demand providing a floor for the overall market trend. Policy developments were the primary disruptive factor this month; on September 8, Zimbabwe announced a ban on the export of antimony and tungsten ores and concentrates. This policy sparked supply concerns, fueling market apprehensions about a potential contraction in global antimony raw material supplies over the medium to long term, which continued to weigh on market sentiment.

In the domestic market, overall supply remains tight, and there is a strong sentiment among market participants to hold firm on prices. Strict controls on domestic antimony ore mining have resulted in a long-standing state of tight balance in the antimony concentrate market. As most domestic smelters rely on purchased raw materials, the industry faces significant profit pressure and widespread losses, reinforcing the determination of enterprises to maintain price levels. Traders are largely limiting inventories to meet immediate demand rather than engaging in mass sell-offs or stock clearing; the limited volume of circulating spot inventory provides a floor for domestic antimony prices, resulting in a market trend that is stable with a firming bias.

Demand Side:

In terms of traditional downstream demand for antimony, flame-retardant materials account for approximately 55% and glass for about 15%. Antimony is an essential and irreplaceable element in the production of photovoltaic (PV) glass; as my country's PV industry continues to expand, the primary source of future demand growth for antimony metal will be the PV sector. Currently, downstream demand for antimony ingots reflects a scenario where expectations for a peak season remain, yet actual volume growth is insufficient; while baseline demand provides steady support, there is a lack of significant, concentrated surges in consumption. Trading activity in the downstream market remains generally subdued, with the industry largely maintaining low inventory levels and an "as-needed" purchasing strategy. Although traditional demand for antimony oxide and new energy-related demand for PV glass provide dual support, factors such as cost pressures at the end-user level and weak order volumes continue to constrain restocking efforts. Overall, demand remains tepid, limiting upward momentum in antimony prices.

Antimony Oxide: As a key downstream sector for antimony ingots, the antimony trioxide industry has entered the traditional "Golden September" peak consumption season; while there are expectations of a seasonal recovery, actual demand has remained lackluster. Downstream industries—such as flame retardants and plastic chemicals—are facing rising production costs driven by higher upstream raw material prices, which has squeezed profit margins; consequently, companies are adopting a cautious procurement stance, resulting in a slow pace of essential purchasing.

Photovoltaics (PV): PV glass is a major downstream application for antimony ingots in the new energy sector. Currently, the industry is operating sluggishly with insufficient incremental demand, characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, inventory accumulation, and operational pressure on enterprises. Domestic PV project tenders are progressing slowly, and the momentum for overseas stockpiling has cooled. Overall, PV glass manufacturers are limiting purchases to sporadic, essential needs rather than engaging in large-scale restocking, providing only weak support for antimony ingot prices.

Market Outlook:

Going forward, close attention should be paid to the pace of concentrated pre-holiday restocking by the downstream flame retardant and photovoltaic glass sectors during the latter half of September. If a surge in concentrated pre-holiday restocking demand materializes, the antimony ingot market is likely to sustain its recovery, potentially accelerating the upward trend. Conversely, if end-users continue to limit purchases to sporadic, essential needs and the anticipated peak-season demand growth fails to fully materialize, the market will likely maintain its current pattern of fluctuating upward. Monitoring actual downstream demand is crucial.

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