According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market exhibited a trend of fluctuation with an upward bias as September began; as of September 11, the average market price in East China stood at 6,971 RMB/ton, marking a 9.10% increase since the beginning of the month.
In terms of core drivers, the recent rise in PTA prices is primarily underpinned by favorable cost-side factors stemming from crude oil. International crude oil prices have recently shown strong volatility driven by geopolitical tensions; as of September 10, the settlement price for the October contract of US WTI crude oil futures stood at $102.48 per barrel, while the settlement price for the November contract of Brent crude oil futures was $107.63 per barrel, providing solid support for both PTA spot and futures prices.
On the supply side, the PTA market previously experienced continuous destocking, resulting in relatively tight spot supplies; this, combined with processing margins remaining within a reasonable range, effectively supported market prices and prevented a sharp decline. As most PTA units undergoing maintenance in September gradually restart and ramp up operations, the industry's overall operating rate is steadily recovering and supply is becoming looser. Consequently, the pace of destocking has slowed, and the market is expected to shift from destocking to a supply-demand balance—or even a slight accumulation of inventory—during the latter half of the month.
Demand during the "Golden September" peak season has fallen short of expectations; compounded by high raw material costs that constrain end-market orders, the follow-through on textile orders remains sluggish, and essential procurement is weak. Consequently, operating rates among downstream polyester enterprises are low, and with some polyester chip plants planning maintenance, polyester production loads are set to decline further. As peak-season demand expectations likely go unfulfilled, it will be difficult to drive a sustained rise in PTA prices.
Analysts at SunSirs believe that, in the near term, PTA prices will continue to fluctuate within a range with a slight upward bias. While cost factors remain the primary driver and provide solid support, weak demand is curbing significant gains. As market supply continues to rise and peak-season demand fails to fully materialize, the scope for further PTA price increases will be limited. Barring a strong catalyst—such as a sharp surge in crude oil prices—the market is unlikely to break out of its current range-bound pattern and will likely exhibit a "strong near-term, weak long-term" trend. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include crude oil price volatility, changes in plant operating rates, and the actual volume of downstream polyester orders.
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