Price trends

Domestic prices for mild steel plates saw a slight decline last week. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the quoted price for standard medium plates (Grade: Q235B; Thickness: 20mm) was 3,442 RMB/ton on September 7. Prices fell during the week, dropping to 3,432 RMB/ton on September 9—a decrease of 0.29%—and remained stable at that level on September 10. Overall, the market retreated under pressure after an initial rise; the general price level shifted slightly downward, spot trading remained sluggish, and moving higher-priced inventory became increasingly difficult.

Influencing factors

Upstream Billets: The cost support previously provided by rising billet prices has weakened. During the week, ex-works prices for common carbon square billets in the Qian'an area of Tangshan fluctuated within a narrow range of 3,030-3,050 RMB/ton: the mainstream ex-works quote was 3,040 RMB/ton on September 7; on September 8, the mainstream quote fell to 3,030 RMB/ton, though some mills (such as Songting) raised prices slightly by 20 yuan to 3,050 RMB/ton; prices remained near 3,030 RMB/ton for the remainder of the week. Overall, upward momentum was lacking, and trading activity at higher price levels slowed. While profit margins on finished steel products saw a slight recovery, the cost-driven boost for medium-heavy plates faded as spot prices for the plates retreated; with cost support weakening and unable to drive further price increases for flat products, prices for finished steel—weighed down by demand—were the first to pull back.

Demand Situation: Operating rates in downstream end-use sectors—such as machinery manufacturing, construction machinery, and steel structures—remain at moderate levels, and the "Golden September" peak season has failed to meet earlier expectations. Downstream buyers are largely purchasing small quantities on an as-needed basis; there is little willingness to stock up in bulk, and acceptance of high-priced material is low. Market trading volume has contracted alongside the price decline, and the lack of sustained growth in demand is the primary factor suppressing the market for mild steel plates during this cycle.

Inventory Status: Overall social inventory is showing a trend of gradual accumulation. Traders were cautious about restocking during the earlier phase of rising prices; as spot prices subsequently pulled back, market sentiment turned to a "wait-and-see" approach, slowing the pace of distribution and leading to a slight buildup in inventory. Meanwhile, steel mills face manageable in-house inventory pressure and show little inclination to significantly cut production on their own; consequently, the inventory situation exerts a marginally bearish influence on market trends.

Market outlook

In the short term, the market for mild steel plates lacks strong demand support; coupled with technical signals indicating a downward correction, prices are likely to fluctuate with a bearish bias. Should downstream orders gradually materialize and steel billet costs stabilize, the scope for a pullback will be limited; however, if demand during the peak season continues to fall short of expectations, spot prices may remain under downward pressure. Regarding trading strategy, most traders are prioritizing a "quick-turnover" approach, with a wait-and-see sentiment prevailing.

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