According to data from SunSirs, the average spot price of LLDPE (7042) rose 3.76% from 9,123 RMB/ton on September 7 to 9,466 RMB/ton on September 11. The average price of LDPE (2426H) increased 2.52% from 11,900 RMB/ton to 12,200 RMB/ton over the same period, while HDPE (5000S) rose 1.60% from 10,925 RMB/ton to 11,100 RMB/ton.
In August, multiple domestic PE units underwent scheduled maintenance, leading to tightened supply and a decline in petrochemical inventories, which bolstered spot prices. Although maintenance units are gradually resuming production in September—causing domestic supply to rise—supply pressure remains limited in the short term, with the impact of increased supply expected to materialize gradually.
September marks the traditional peak season for agricultural film, leading to a month-on-month recovery in demand. However, downstream manufacturers are seeing their profit margins squeezed by rising raw material costs; consequently, most are purchasing only to meet immediate needs rather than stockpiling large quantities. While demand provides a floor for prices, it is unlikely to drive a significant, sustained upward trend.
The current market rally is primarily supported by rising costs for oil-based PE, driven by geopolitical factors boosting international crude oil prices. In contrast, the cost of coal-based PE remains relatively stable, as raw coal prices have seen little fluctuation. Should crude oil prices fall, the cost support for oil-based PE would weaken, placing downward pressure on the market.
The current PE market trend is driven by a combination of rising costs and the earlier supply contraction. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, supported by low inventories and peak-season demand for agricultural film. However, as production units resume operations and peak-season expectations are realized, there is a risk of a market pullback in the medium to long term.
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