Corn: China's forecast for the corn supply and demand situation in the 2026/27 marketing year remains unchanged from the previous month this month. Since the sowing of the new season corn, the climate in major producing areas has been relatively favorable, which is generally beneficial to crop growth. High temperatures have increased the risk of grain storage, traders have been actively selling grain, coupled with the successive listing of southern corn, increased imports of substitutes such as sorghum and barley, and the corn market has seen a phased surplus. The drought in the U.S. producing areas is expected to ease, and coupled with sufficient pending exports of South American corn, the expectation of tight international corn supply has loosened slightly.

Soybeans: The forecast for China's soybean supply and demand situation in the 2026/27 marketing year this month remains consistent with that of the previous month. The soil moisture in most farmland in Northeast China is suitable, and the meteorological conditions are generally conducive to the growth, development and yield formation of soybeans; early-maturing soybeans in Hubei have basically been harvested and are gradually put on the market for sale. U.S. soybeans have entered the key period of yield formation, and key rainfall in early August partially alleviated the adverse effects of drought, putting the global soybean supply in a continued loose pattern.

Cotton: This month, we raised the estimated import volume of cotton for the 2025/26 marketing year by 50,000 tons from the previous month to 1.55 million tons, and the ending inventory was adjusted up to 8.26 million tons. The forecast for China's cotton supply and demand situation in 2026/27 released this month remains consistent with that of the previous month. Most cotton-growing areas in Xinjiang have continued to experience high temperatures and little rainfall, and the average number of cotton bolls per plant is lower than the same period last year. Expectations of yield reduction in locally drought-stricken plots are rising, and the actual impact awaits further tracking and evaluation. The central reserve cotton is being sold regularly through rotation, with a cumulative transaction rate of 100%, continuously supplementing the supply of spot raw materials before the listing of new cotton. Autumn and winter orders have not yet been released centrally, and spinning enterprises are cautious in stock preparation, with raw material procurement only maintaining the current production turnover. Internationally, the cotton-growing areas in Texas, the United States, have continued to face high temperatures and drought, and the overall rate of good-quality cotton nationwide has dropped significantly year-on-year. Expectations of a tightening in global cotton supply have intensified somewhat.

Edible vegetable oil: In this month's estimate, the output of edible vegetable oil for the 2025/26 marketing year is 32.44 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. Among this, the output of rapeseed oil is 7.83 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons from the previous month's estimate, mainly due to the better quality of summer-harvested rapeseed and a higher oil extraction rate than expected; the estimated output of peanut oil and other vegetable oils has been revised down by 20,000 tons, mainly affected by the reduction in the estimated import volume of oilseeds.

This month's forecast for China's edible vegetable oil supply and demand situation in the 2026/27 marketing year remains consistent with the previous month's prediction. Recently, under the combined influence of the residual vortex after the weakening of Typhoon "White Dolphin" and cold air, heavy rain to downpours will hit the Huang-Huai River region and North China, leading to a high risk of waterlogging in low-lying farmland. This is detrimental to the root growth of peanuts. It is necessary to carry out farmland drainage work and guard against the impact of adverse weather on yield formation.

Sugar: The forecast for China's sugar supply and demand situation for the 2026/27 marketing year this month remains consistent with that of the previous month. In early August, Guangxi, the main sugarcane-producing region, was affected by the downdraft of Typhoon "Dolphin", with continuous sunny and hot weather, which helped alleviate the adverse impact of the persistent rainfall in the early stage on sugarcane production. On the international front, the global sugar supply outlook is tightening, and there is upward momentum for sugar prices. Brazil's sugarcane crushing ratio as of July 1 dropped to 42.5%, with cumulative sugar production down 12.4% year-on-year; uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall in India has increased the uncertainty of sugarcane growth; and the continuous high temperature and drought in Europe have put sugar crops at great risk of significant yield reduction.

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