According to data from SunSirs, the domestic polycarbonate (PC) market trended upward in early September, with spot prices for various grades continuing to rise. As of September 9, the benchmark price for PC (mixed grade) stood at approximately 14,883.33 RMB/ton, marking a 1.25% increase since the beginning of the month.
Supply Side: Since the start of September, operating rates among domestic PC polymerization plants have remained low, with the industry's overall load rate hovering around 75%. Production output has remained stable, with weekly production averaging just over 60,000 tons, and shipment flow from plants has been reasonably smooth. Additionally, while some units at Zhejiang Petrochemical are expected to restart soon, the resulting capacity return is anticipated to have a limited impact on overall supply. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PC prices.
Raw Materials: As shown in the chart above, the domestic bisphenol A (BPA) market saw significant gains entering September. International crude oil prices surged due to the volatile situation in the Middle East, driving up the prices of acetone and phenol. Meanwhile, the supply of prime-grade BPA tightened, with low inventory levels among manufacturers and traders; market sentiment regarding BPA remained bullish, keeping spot prices high and firm. With fewer low-priced supplies available downstream, the focus of actual transaction prices shifted upward. Overall, raw material costs have provided strong support for PC prices.
Demand Side: Downstream PC factories have yet to show significant signs of a peak season; operating rates at end-user enterprises remain low, and demand for products such as sheets and casings is lackluster. However, given the medium-term tight balance between PC supply and demand, traders have attempted to quote higher prices, while end-user enterprises remain cautious. Market liquidity has slowed, with a strong "wait-and-see" attitude regarding high-priced goods and cautious stocking by buyers. Overall, demand-side support for PC spot prices remains modest.
The domestic PC market continued to rise in early September. After an initial surge, upstream BPA prices consolidated, yet the cost-side support for PC increased significantly. Operating rates at domestic PC polymerization plants remain low, and supply fluctuations are expected to be limited in the near term. Market trading is sluggish, driven primarily by essential needs, and stocking remains cautious. Currently, the PC market maintains a tight supply-demand balance, with expectations for further increases in raw material costs. Analysts at SunSirs believe that PC prices may remain firm at high levels in the short term; they advise closely monitoring crude oil prices and the demand side.
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