The USDA's Crop Progress report indicates that the "good-to-excellent" rating for U.S. soybeans has stabilized, though it remains at its lowest level for this time of year since 2023. As of September 6, 26% of the soybean crop across 18 major producing states (accounting for 96% of national acreage) had reached the leaf-dropping stage—up from 13% the previous week and exceeding both the year-ago figure and the five-year average of 20%. The good-to-excellent rating stood at 58% (unchanged from the previous week, compared to 65% a year ago), while the poor-to-very-poor rating was 13% (unchanged from the previous week, compared to 10% a year ago).

The report shows that U.S. soybean crop conditions remain at their lowest level for this period since 2023, with growth significantly lagging behind last year. Market expectations for a downward revision in U.S. soybean yields have intensified, providing bullish support for both spot and futures prices. However, the fact that the good-to-excellent rating did not deteriorate further—combined with a leaf-dropping rate that exceeds both last year's figures and the five-year average—suggests an accelerated maturation pace. This facilitates concentrated harvesting and market entry later in the season, thereby somewhat alleviating supply concerns; consequently, the report is assessed as moderately bullish.

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