Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic price of BDO rose from 7,783 RMB/ton to 8,108 RMB/ton between August 1 and August 31, marking an increase of 4.18% during the period and a year-on-year rise of 7.09%. In August, the domestic BDO market saw numerous maintenance activities and temporary plant shutdowns; this effectively reduced industry inventories and drove a sustained rise in market prices.
Market analysis
Regarding supply, although the Shuguang Lvhua plant restarted in August, scheduled maintenance at facilities such as Dongyuan, Tunhe, Yanchang Petroleum, Heimao, and Yongying—combined with unplanned shutdowns at Xinye Phase II and one Guotai unit—resulted in a significant month-on-month decline in production. Additionally, sluggish transportation in the Xinjiang region led to reduced volumes of both spot and contract goods. These factors have created a bullish outlook for BDO supply.
Statistics on plant operations at selected producers:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe |
Phase 1 stopped on August 27, 2024. Phases II and III underwent major inspections on July 31, and after restarting on September 1, load capacity reached 70-80%. |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
Phase III units have shut down, while phases I, II, IV, and V are running stably |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO unit, currently operating around 70-80% capacity |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
One unit was stable, while another unit was temporarily shut down due to boiler issues. After restarting on August 30, it operated steadily |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The 60,000-ton unit in Phase I and the 70,000-ton unit in Phase II are operating stably; The second phase set of 70,000 tons is scheduled to restart in mid-September |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
Relatively stable operation |
|
Sichuan Tianhua |
The first phase at 25,000 tons per year and the second phase at 60,000 tons are operating stably |
On the cost front, prices for raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are trending upward, increasing cost-side pressure on BDO; suppliers are actively seeking to support market prices, and cost-related factors are exerting a bullish influence on the BDO market.
On the demand side, downstream operating rates have risen, leading to increased consumption of raw materials; however, as most products are currently unprofitable, there is resistance to high raw material prices. Market activity is characterized by the fulfillment of existing contracts and small-volume spot transactions at high price levels, with the overall trading price center shifting upward. Consequently, demand-side factors for BDO are leaning positive.
Market outlook
Industry destocking persists, and suppliers remain firm on pricing, supporting a continued rise in market price levels. However, downstream sectors face cost pressures and show limited willingness to accept high prices. Overall, SunSirs BDO analysts anticipate that the domestic BDO market will primarily undergo a period of consolidation following recent gains.
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