DO prices fluctuated upward in September

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of DOP stood at 9,817.50 RMB/ton as of September 7, marking a 2.43% increase from the 9,584.17 RMB/ton recorded on September 1. Throughout September, the domestic DOP market continued to recover, with prices maintaining an upward trend and breaching the 10,000 RMB/ton mark again in some regions. While the market initially exhibited a "strong rebound" in early September, it subsequently shifted to a pattern of fluctuation characterized by resilience against declines and a bullish bias; DOP prices are currently at a one-year high, yet upward momentum remains.

Raw material prices rose

Isooctanol prices fluctuated upwards in September

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the quoted price of isooctanol stood at 9,166.67 RMB/ton as of September 7, marking a rise from the 8,833.33 RMB/ton recorded on September 1—an increase of 3.77%. Domestic operating rates for isooctanol averaged 70%, with major production units running stably; however, Hualu Hengsheng is scheduled to shut down its unit for maintenance for approximately 20 days starting September 8. The anticipated reduction in supply is providing bullish support for spot prices. High crude oil prices are establishing a cost floor, while upstream propylene prices have shown strength amidst fluctuations, thereby supporting isooctanol production costs. Should crude oil prices pull back, this cost support would marginally weaken; while propylene prices might retreat, there is limited momentum for any further significant upward movement. The rise in isooctanol prices has intensified cost support for DOP.

Phthalic anhydride prices trended upward with fluctuations in September

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the quoted price for phthalic anhydride (produced via the ortho-xylene process) stood at 9,483.33 RMB/ton as of September 7, marking a slight rise from the 9,400 RMB/ton recorded on September 1—an increase of 0.89%. Driven by multiple factors—including rising international crude oil prices, higher costs for raw materials (ortho-xylene and industrial naphthalene), and tightened supply due to maintenance at certain production facilities—phthalic anhydride prices climbed again in early September, maintaining cost support for DOP.

Cost side: DOP is a product where cost changes are passed on; plasticizer manufacturers are compelled to raise prices when raw material costs rise. However, if raw material prices surge too rapidly for downstream sectors to absorb the cost, profit margins can become compressed or even inverted (where the cost of raw materials exceeds the selling price of the finished product). Isooctanol is the primary driver behind the rise in DOP prices; with further increases in isooctanol prices anticipated, cost support for DOP is expected to strengthen.

DOP Market Analysis

Supply Side: Limited Increase in Industry Operating Rates

Operating rates in the DOP industry have risen slightly since early August but have declined compared to late September, resulting in limited overall supply growth. Spot supply of isooctanol remains tight due to low plant operating rates and upcoming scheduled maintenance; while new capacity is gradually coming online, current operating rates remain low, keeping overall supply relatively ample. With processing margins for plasticizer manufacturers squeezed—or even resulting in slight losses—producers are reluctant to ramp up operating rates, and factory inventory levels remain generally low.

Demand side: Traditional peak season, but the pass-through of high prices was hindered.

During the traditional "Golden September" peak season, demand for flexible PVC products, cable compounds, and artificial leather improved slightly compared to August; while inquiries increased, there was no surge in orders. Operating rates at downstream manufacturing plants saw limited gains, with purchasing driven primarily by immediate needs rather than inventory stockpiling. There is significant resistance to high-priced DOP, and passing on cost increases downstream has proven difficult; manufacturers are reluctant to chase higher prices, and sluggish trading at elevated levels has capped the potential for further sharp rises in DOP prices.

Market Overview and Outlook

Analysts at SunSirs note that high crude oil prices are providing a cost floor for chemical products overall. Meanwhile, maintenance at isooctanol plants is keeping raw material costs firm at high levels. Expectations for the "Golden September" peak season suggest a month-on-month improvement in essential downstream demand, reinforcing support for rising DOP prices. However, DOP prices are already at yearly highs; downstream acceptance is poor, and there is little appetite to chase higher prices. If end-market orders fall short of expectations and the peak season fails to fully materialize, there is a risk of a price pullback. In summary, the market outlook for DOP points to high-level fluctuation supported by costs; while there is limited room for significant gains, the risk of a correction remains.

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