Data monitored by SunSirs indicates that carbon black market prices primarily trended upward last week. As of the 4th, the domestic market price for N220 carbon black stood at 9,628.57 RMB/ton, marking a 5.31% increase from the 9,142.86 RMB/ton recorded at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year rise of 35.95%.

Regarding raw materials: The coal tar market saw significant price increases last week. Shandong Zouping Guangfu raised its high-temperature coal tar price by 545 RMB/ton to 5,220 RMB/ton, while Shandong Laigang increased its price by 250 RMB/ton to 4,810 RMB/ton. Prevailing trading prices for high-temperature coal tar in Shandong stood at 4,810 RMB/ton, up 230 RMB/ton from the week before last. Supplies of coal tar have tightened, and cost-side support remains strong.

On the supply side, the operating rate of sampled carbon black enterprises stood at 65.04% last week, down 2.16 percentage points from the previous week. Ongoing maintenance at some facilities and environmental production restrictions—combined with a growing willingness among enterprises to limit output due to financial losses—have led to a tightening of overall supply; manufacturers are largely scheduling production flexibly based on orders, and inventory pressure remains low.

Regarding the end market: In the downstream tire sector, the capacity utilization rate for sampled semi-steel tire enterprises stood at 65.30% last week (down 0.51 percentage points week-on-week), while that for all-steel tire enterprises was 65.08% (up 0.93 percentage points week-on-week). Tire manufacturers are primarily purchasing based on immediate needs and show strong resistance to high-priced carbon black. Demand for non-tire rubber products remains relatively stable.

Influencing factors: Prices of raw material coal tar are expected to remain high in the short term, supported by restocking demand; carbon black producers face significant pressure from losses and are increasingly inclined to raise prices. Downstream capacity to absorb high-priced supplies is limited, meaning the tug-of-war between costs and demand will dictate future market trends. Key factors to monitor include the schedule for autumn maintenance at deep-processing plants and the pace of pre-National Day restocking.

Market Outlook

Last week, carbon black prices surged significantly, driven by sharp increases in raw material costs; the price of N330 grade in Shandong rose to 8,500-8,800 RMB/ton, with a single-day increase of 550 RMB/ton. Cost pressure was the primary driver, while demand-side follow-through remained limited. In the short term, carbon black prices are likely to remain firm; however, as current prices are already at the high end of the annual range, further upside potential may narrow. Future market trends will depend on raw material price movements and the actual realization of downstream demand.

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