According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, MTBE prices fluctuated between August 1 and August 31, initially falling from 7,200 RMB/tonne before rising to 7,210 RMB/tonne. During this period, the price increased by 0.15%, with a maximum fluctuation of 9.98% and a year-on-year rise of 44.655%.
Entering August, the domestic MTBE market showed a trend of fluctuating upward, with prices rising further in the latter half of the month. Specifically, during the first and middle parts of the month, international crude oil prices performed poorly. Meanwhile, manufacturers such as Huizhou Yuxin, Dongying Shenchi, and Dongfang Hongye successively resumed operations, leading to a continuous increase in supply. As the domestic gasoline market remained weak, manufacturers offered price concessions to boost sales volume. From the latter half of the month, the market trended upward amidst fluctuations; international crude oil prices rose, and maintenance work on Lihuayi’s conventional and isomerization units—combined with a decision by some major manufacturers to withhold stock—tightened the supply of circulating resources. Concurrently, the gasoline market strengthened with significant delivery volumes for marine orders, noticeably boosting buyer interest in gasoline blending components. Consequently, the MTBE market trended upward, experiencing only a slight pullback at the very end of the month.
Regarding costs and crude oil: International crude oil prices trended upward overall in August, with the monthly average price exceeding that of July. In the first ten days of the month, US-Iran negotiations stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed; market concerns over supply disruption risks intensified, driving up international oil prices. In the middle of the month, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding expired without renewal, and the US intensified measures against Iran; prospects for reopening the strait remained dim, and geopolitical risk premiums continued to push up oil prices. In the final ten days, mediators continued to push for a return to negotiations, raising expectations for improved navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; geopolitical and supply concerns eased somewhat, causing international oil prices to retreat slightly.
On the demand side: Regarding downstream gasoline consumption, expectations for international crude oil prices remained volatile, and market participants maintained a cautious attitude, limiting purchases of gasoline blending components to essential needs. However, the high volume of marine order deliveries in August—particularly in the first half of the month—provided support to the MTBE market. MTBE export volumes in August may have declined compared to July, leading to a gradual increase in domestic inventory that needs to be absorbed; the demand side is influenced by factors leaning towards the positive.
On the supply side, units at Bengu New Materials, Lihuayi (both traditional and isomerization units), and Ningxia Baofeng were shut down during the month, while operations resumed at Dongying Shenchi, Dongfang Hongye, Shouguang Dexin (old isobutane dehydrogenation unit), and Shenghong Refining & Chemical; overall, resource supply has increased, exerting bearish pressure on the supply side.
As of the close on September 3, the Asian MTBE market price rose by $12.89/tonne from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling at $1,032.12–$1,034.12/tonne. The European MTBE market price increased by $3.75/tonne, with FOB ARA prices settling at $1,580.24–$1,580.74/tonne. The US MTBE market price fell by $33.43/tonne, with FOB Gulf Coast prices settling at $1,186.06–$1,186.41/tonne (334.89–334.99 cents/gallon).
Market Outlook: Manufacturers that had previously shut down—such as Haite Weiye, Huayi Chemical, Zhonghao Jian, Qixiang Tengda, Ningxia Baofeng, and Lihuayi—have plans to restart operations, suggesting a likely increase in supply. Regarding gasoline demand, international crude oil prices are expected to trend weakly, and downstream buyers remain cautious; gasoline consumption has stabilized following the summer peak, with market participants likely limiting purchases of gasoline blendstocks to essential needs. Analysts at SunSirs predict that the MTBE market will primarily undergo wide-ranging consolidation.
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