According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, prices for both softwood pulp and hardwood pulp trended upward last week. As of September 4, the average market price for softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,936.67 RMB/ton, up 1.79% from the average on August 30. The average market price for hardwood pulp in Shandong was 4,556.67 RMB/ton on September 4, up 0.51% from August 30.
Regarding supply: Several overseas softwood pulp mills have announced maintenance and production reduction plans; mills in Canada and Finland plan to halt or reduce production in October and November. Expectations of a future contraction in global softwood pulp supply have strengthened, providing psychological support for domestic spot prices, though the immediate impact on physical supply remains limited. Domestic pulp is increasingly substituting for imports, absorbing most of the incremental demand, resulting in an overall loose supply situation domestically.
During this period, pulp inventories at major sampled ports showed an accumulation trend. As of September 3, sampled inventory at major Chinese pulp ports stood at 2.292 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons (0.2%) from the previous period. Inventory at Qingdao Port—a major domestic hub—declined, with the average daily outflow rate remaining largely unchanged from the previous period; meanwhile, inventory at Changshu Port increased, with outflow volume approaching 100,000 tons.
Regarding demand: Although the market has entered the traditional "Golden September" peak season, downstream paper mill operating rates have not shown a significant rise during this period. Orders for cultural paper, tissue paper, and coated paper have seen only limited month-on-month improvement, and paper mills continue to face pressure from finished product inventories. Mills are generally avoiding advance stockpiling, preferring to purchase on an as-needed basis, and acceptance of high-priced pulp remains low. Following a rebound in futures prices, downstream buyers have adopted a "wait-and-see" attitude; the lack of significant growth in actual transaction volumes has constrained the extent to which spot prices can rise in tandem. Regarding the futures market: Pulp futures prices fluctuated with an upward bias during the period, remaining within a specific trading range. Bullish factors included production cuts by overseas pulp mills and expectations for the "Golden September" peak season; bearish factors included high port inventories and downstream demand that has yet to fully materialize. Intense tug-of-war between long and short positions prevented a clear, one-sided market trend. As of September 4, 2026, the main pulp futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 4,812 RMB/tonne and closed at 4,854 RMB/tonne, reaching a high of 4,882 RMB/tonne; trading volume stood at 338,500 lots, with open interest at 226,000 lots.
Analysts at SunSirs believe that while expectations for overseas production cuts and "Golden September" peak-season restocking are gradually materializing—providing cost support for wood pulp prices—high port inventories and the slow pace of actual downstream demand release act as headwinds. Paper mills are resistant to high-priced pulp; should peak-season demand continue to fall short of expectations, there is a risk of a price pullback. Consequently, wood pulp prices are expected to remain range-bound in the short term, with significant one-sided surges or slumps unlikely.
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