The international gold market has recently experienced significant volatility, with prices surging and plunging in a "roller-coaster" pattern.

Data from Wind shows that starting in early August, international gold prices (based on London spot gold) underwent a rapid ascent; between August 3 and August 25, the price rose by 15.24%, climbing from the $4,000/ounce level to nearly $4,700/ounce.

However, in the five trading sessions following that peak, prices fell consecutively. The cumulative decline from August 26 to September 1 reached 7.08%, with single-day drops approaching 3% on both August 28 and September 1. Prices dipped below the $4,400/ounce mark, closing at $4,327.28/ounce on September 1. Although there was a rebound between September 2 and September 4—pushing the price back above $4,400/ounce to close at $4,430.52/ounce on September 4—the price remained nearly $300 per ounce lower than the August peak.

What drove this market behavior? "The recent sharp rise and fall in gold prices primarily stems from a fundamental shift in logic: moving from a recovery in risk appetite to heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike," explained Fan Rui, head of non-ferrous metals analysis at Guoyuan Futures, to a *Securities Daily* reporter. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, significantly fueling market expectations for a rate hike in September. Meanwhile, renewed geopolitical uncertainty and rising crude oil prices—which exacerbated inflation concerns—further reinforced expectations of a Fed rate hike and exerted downward pressure on gold.

Ding Zhenyu, a senior investment advisor at Shaanxi Jufeng Investment Information Co., Ltd., also told Securities Daily that the sharp rise followed by a "nosedive" in gold prices since August was fundamentally driven by changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. At the same time, a concentrated sell-off by investors taking profits from earlier gains also triggered a pullback.

Recent news indicates that the trend of international gold prices is significantly influenced by shifting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

On the evening of August 28 (Beijing time), Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh delivered a keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. He reaffirmed the Fed's "firm and fixed" 2% inflation target and stated that current US financial conditions could "hardly be described as restrictive." He added that if underlying inflation failed to decline clearly and rapidly enough, the Fed would "have more work to do." Industry observers interpreted this as the closest Warsh has come to acknowledging that an interest rate hike might be necessary. Driven by heightened expectations of a rate hike, international gold prices experienced their sharpest decline in recent times that day.

On September 3, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled a "dovish" stance, cooling market expectations for a rate hike; the US Dollar Index fell 0.56% that day, while international gold prices rallied, rising 2.09%. On September 4, the US non-farm payroll report for August was released, showing a labor market performance that far exceeded expectations. This reignited rate-hike speculation, causing international gold prices to fall 1.08% that day.

"In the medium term, gold is primarily influenced by global monetary policy cycles. While US macroeconomic data remains volatile, we are indeed in a transition window between rate-cutting and rate-hiking cycles. The market is still pricing in these expectations, and fluctuations in the US dollar and Treasury yields are keeping gold in a period of adjustment," said Fan Rui. He noted that the current price correction does not signal the end of gold's long-term bull market; the adjustment phase will likely conclude as the Fed's rate-hiking cycle officially begins and takes effect.

Looking ahead, Ding Zhenyu expects international gold prices to fluctuate widely in the short term—ranging between $4,000 and $4,500 per ounce—but notes that the logic for a medium-to-long-term upward trend remains solid. Key influencing factors include expectations of a shift in Fed monetary policy, structural support from continued gold purchases by global central banks, and risks to the US dollar's credibility stemming from high US debt levels. (Source: Securities Daily)

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