According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the price of MTBE rose from 7,260 RMB/ton to 7,426 RMB/ton between August 28 and September 4. This represents a period increase of 2.29%, an 8.73% rise month-on-month, and a 46.34% increase year-on-year.
The domestic MTBE market has continued to climb, driven by rising international crude oil closing prices and a simultaneous increase in gasoline prices. Market participants are showing strong interest in purchasing gasoline blending components. With many manufacturers currently fulfilling export orders, there is little pressure on spot supplies, leading to a strong push for higher prices and a steady upward trend in transaction levels.
Regarding costs and crude oil: International oil prices have risen. Key bullish factors include renewed military conflict between the US and Iran—specifically attacks on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz—which has heightened market concerns regarding geopolitical and supply risks.
On the demand side (downstream/gasoline): Retail demand for gasoline has cooled following the end of the summer travel season, yet market participants remain bullish. Overall, demand-side factors for MTBE are leaning positive.
On the supply side: Units at Shenghong Refining & Chemical and Zhonghao have commenced operations, while the restart of the older isobutane dehydrogenation unit at Shouguang Dexin continues to impact output; overall operating rates have risen. Supply-side factors are exerting downward pressure on prices.
As of the close on September 3, the Asian MTBE market closing price rose by $12.89/ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling at $1,032.12–$1,034.12/ton. The European MTBE market closing price rose by $3.75/ton, with FOB ARA prices settling at $1,580.24–$1,580.74/ton. The US MTBE market closing price fell by $33.43/ton, with FOB Gulf Coast prices settling at $1,186.06–$1,186.41/ton (334.89–334.99 cents/gallon). Market Outlook: End-user demand for gasoline remains decent, with market participants making moderate purchases. Amidst geopolitical instability and elevated crude oil prices, the market is expected to remain at a high level; analysts from SunSirs anticipate that MTBE market trends will primarily be characterized by high-level fluctuations.
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