According to data from SunSirs, the average spot price of LLDPE (7042) rose from 8,506 RMB/ton on August 28 to 9,125 RMB/ton on September 3, an increase of 7.27%. During the same period, the average price of LDPE (2426H) climbed from 10,766 RMB/ton to 11,733 RMB/ton (up 8.98%), and HDPE (5000S) rose from 10,612 RMB/ton to 10,937 RMB/ton (up 3.06%). The primary driver behind this price rally was a contraction in market supply caused by concentrated maintenance shutdowns at petrochemical plants; LDPE was the grade most significantly affected. Looking ahead, maintenance units are gradually resuming production, domestic supply is set to increase, and coal-based production facilities are maintaining high operating rates. Additionally, expectations of increased import arrivals from new overseas capacity are likely to further limit upward price momentum. Currently, overall inventory levels remain low, providing a degree of price support at the lower end.

Downstream operating rates have recovered modestly from August lows, and essential demand for agricultural films and piping has improved; however, most industries are purchasing only to meet immediate needs, showing little willingness to actively restock. There is a disconnect between expectations and reality regarding the "Golden September" peak season; downstream manufacturers face high finished-product inventories and thin profit margins, leading to strong resistance against high-priced raw materials. Demand recovery has been weak, serving only to provide a price floor rather than driving a significant, sustained rally.

Prices for oil-based PE have fluctuated at high levels in tandem with crude oil and ethylene, providing cost-based support for spot prices; however, the lack of sustained upward momentum in crude oil prices makes it difficult to push quotes any higher.

In the short term, the polyethylene market is shifting from a rapid rally to high-level volatility. While there is insufficient momentum for a major surge, low inventory levels and cost factors provide a price floor. As maintenance units resume production, supply pressure is gradually emerging, and limited downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials is capping the market's upside potential.

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