According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic lithium carbonate market staged a strong rebound in August; prices rose steadily, climbing from 142,000 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 156,000 RMB/ton by month-end—an increase of nearly 10%.

The steady recovery on the demand side provided solid support for price increases.

In August, production scheduling data from power battery manufacturers exceeded expectations, showing steady month-on-month growth. Coupled with sustained demand from the energy storage sector, this simultaneous recovery in downstream demand drove a continuous reduction in market inventories. Throughout the month, social inventories of lithium carbonate steadily declined—with significant weekly drawdowns—as downstream players ramped up stocking efforts ahead of the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" peak season; this effectively absorbed existing market supplies and completely reversed the earlier state of loose supply-demand balance. Amidst this supply-demand mismatch, a supply gap gradually emerged, solidifying the fundamental basis for the sustained price increases observed in August.

Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain their peak-season momentum in September.

Looking ahead to September, lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a pattern of fluctuating with a bullish bias and moderate upward momentum; while the peak-season trend will persist, the rate of price appreciation is likely to decelerate. On the supply side, some capacity undergoing maintenance has yet to fully resume production, maintaining the fundamental constraint of tightened short-term supply; this is compounded by persistent tightness in overseas lithium ore arrivals that is unlikely to ease quickly. However, the gradual resumption of operations at salt-lake lithium extraction facilities is raising expectations for a supply recovery, which will continue to cap the upside potential for prices. On the demand side, the market is entering the peak of the traditional high season; production schedules for downstream cathode material and battery manufacturers are expected to rise, and the concentrated release of restocking demand from end-users will drive continued inventory depletion. The supply-demand gap is highly likely to widen further, providing core support for lithium prices. Overall, lithium carbonate prices in September will likely fluctuate at high levels with a steady upward shift in the price center. Key factors to monitor include the pace of production resumption at salt lakes, the recovery of lithium ore imports, and the rate of market warehouse receipt accumulation amidst high prices; the ability of demand to absorb supply-side changes will be the decisive factor in whether lithium prices can break through to new highs in late September.

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