Data from the SunSirs commodity market analysis system indicates that polyester filament prices in August fluctuated at low levels during the first ten days of the month before rising mid-month, driven by cost factors. The average price of mainstream POY 150D/48F in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region started the month at 8,525 RMB/ton; the price level subsequently shifted upward, resulting in a modest monthly gain of 2.84%. This rally was primarily driven by rising upstream raw material costs, while downstream weaving orders remained limited, characterizing the trend as cost-push driven.
In early August, the domestic textile industry was in the off-season characterized by high temperatures; orders for autumn/winter fabrics had not yet materialized in volume, and downstream weaving mills were highly cautious with procurement, limiting purchases to immediate needs, resulting in sluggish market trading. Early in the month, PTA prices remained relatively stable; with thin processing margins for filament and little incentive for manufacturers to adjust rates, prices consolidated at low levels. By mid-August, international crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions, driving up the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol and significantly increasing production costs. Coupled with a tightening of raw material supplies caused by concentrated maintenance at PTA plants, polyester factories raised their quotes, pushing polyester filament prices upward. However, downstream acceptance of higher prices was limited, and market sales volume did not see a significant surge.
In September, the polyester filament market has entered a phase of tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces; prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels, with limited momentum for a sustained, sharp rally. On the supply side, manufacturers are generally maintaining controlled production levels; however, as processing margins recover, some plants anticipate resuming or increasing output, and the resulting rise in supply will cap the upside potential for prices.
Regarding costs, PTA units undergoing maintenance are gradually restarting, leading to a marginal easing of feedstock supply and a weakening of cost support. Meanwhile, port inventories of mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) remain low, providing a degree of price support, though market trends are largely driven by fluctuations in crude oil prices.
The demand side is entering the traditional "Golden September" peak season, yet uncertainty remains regarding the recovery of end-market orders. While downstream inventories of greige fabric are low, high raw material costs are squeezing weaving margins, resulting in weak willingness among downstream players to restock in a rising market. Should peak-season orders fall short of expectations, filament prices may face downward pressure. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include raw material price fluctuations, operating rates at filament manufacturers, and the actual materialization of end-market orders.
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