Price trend:
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, domestic BDO prices rose from 8,091 RMB/ton to 8,375 RMB/ton between August 28 and September 4, marking an increase of 3.50% over the period (up 7.60% month-on-month and 11.03% year-on-year). The BDO market maintained a firm upward trend; industry operating rates remained low, and supply was tight due to transportation constraints in the Xinjiang region, prompting suppliers to maintain a firm stance on pricing. Meanwhile, increased operating rates in downstream sectors led to higher raw material consumption and effective inventory reduction, driving the market price level steadily higher.
Regarding supply, facilities such as those of Guotai Xinhua and Lanshan Tunhe have restarted, while Sichuan Yongying is undergoing maintenance involving catalyst replacement; consequently, the industry's overall capacity utilization rate has risen slightly but remains at a low level, with supply volumes remaining relatively moderate. The bullish impact of supply-side factors on the BDO market has weakened.
Statistics on facility operations at selected producers:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Xinjiang Tunhe Lanshan |
Phase 1 stopped on August 27, 2024. Phases II and III underwent major inspections on July 31, and after restarting on September 1, load capacity reached 70-80%. |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
Phase III units have shut down, while phases I, II, IV, and V are running stably |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO unit, currently operating around 70-80% capacity |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
One unit was stable, while another unit was temporarily shut down due to boiler issues. After restarting on August 30, it operated steadily |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The 60,000-ton unit in Phase I and the 70,000-ton unit in Phase II are operating stably; The second phase set of 70,000 tons is scheduled to restart in mid-September |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
Relatively stable operation |
|
Sichuan Tianhua |
The first phase at 25,000 tons per year and the second phase at 60,000 tons are operating stably |
Regarding costs, the price of semi-coke (the raw material for calcium carbide) has continued to rise, strengthening cost support; meanwhile, tight supplies have prompted active purchasing by calcium carbide producers. As for methanol, prices have trended upward. With the rising prices of raw materials—calcium carbide and methanol—cost-side factors are exerting a bullish influence on BDO.
On the demand side, operating rates for downstream PTMEG and PBT have risen, leading to increased demand; factors influencing BDO demand are generally favorable.
Market Outlook
With demand continuing to outpace supply and the industry still in a destocking phase, holders are maintaining a firm stance on pricing, and market levels are expected to rise further; overall, SunSirs BDO analysts anticipate that the BDO market will remain robust.
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
