According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the market price of #1 tin ingots in East China fluctuated at a high level before declining over the course of the month (August 1-31). The average market price stood at 426,660 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and fell to 416,770 RMB/ton by August 31, representing a decrease of 2.32%.

In August 2026, domestic tin prices generally exhibited a pattern of surging before falling back, followed by wide-range fluctuation at high levels. Both trading volume and open interest for SHFE tin declined during the month as market enthusiasm cooled, with bulls and bears engaging in a tug-of-war within the 415,000-440,000 RMB/ton range. 

Supply Side

In early August, news regarding maintenance and production cuts at certain smelters circulated, fueling market expectations of a raw material shortage and driving up tin prices in the short term. However, as time passed, the impact of these disruptions was gradually absorbed:

Overseas Mining: Supplies of imported tin ore saw marginal improvement, easing the shortage of smelting raw materials domestically; smelters that had previously cut production gradually resumed operations, increasing the volume of spot material in circulation.

Domestic Output: Domestic tin smelting operating rates rose temporarily. Social spot inventories did not experience sustained destocking; instead, high price levels incentivized holders to sell, increasing the supply of marketable tin and exerting downward pressure on prices.

Demand Side

In the traditional electronic solder industry, despite expectations of a seasonal peak, the actual release of orders from the downstream electronics sector has been limited. Solder manufacturers have largely adopted an on-demand procurement strategy—replenishing stocks when prices are low and holding off when prices are high—without engaging in large-scale, proactive stockpiling. Demand in the electroplating and tin chemical sectors has remained stable, with limited growth. Following a price surge, downstream buyers showed clear resistance to high prices; purchasing interest contracted rapidly, and the lack of sustained buying support weakened the upward momentum. As the month drew to a close, prices declined, yet there was no significant "buying the dip" from downstream sectors; instead, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed, further intensifying the pressure for a price correction.

Inventory Perspective

In August, domestic and international tin inventories showed a clear divergence: domestic inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 31, SHFE tin stocks stood at 5,131 tonnes, while LME inventories remained at low levels.

Comprehensive Analysis

The tight supply of the raw material coal tar is unlikely to ease in the short term, and cost support is expected to persist. Low operating rates and low inventory levels on the supply side also provide a floor for prices. On the demand side, as the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, operating rates at tire and rubber product manufacturers are expected to rise, likely boosting interest in carbon black inquiries. However, with carbon black prices already at historical highs and limited acceptance from downstream buyers, the scope for further price increases may narrow. The carbon black market is expected to fluctuate at high levels in September, with the overall price trend remaining stable to firm.

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