I. Review of August Market Trends

In August, the domestic PA66 spot market experienced a fluctuating trend, stabilizing at low levels before rebounding slightly at the end of the month. During the first ten days of the month, market prices remained steady at the 18,000 RMB/ton mark, with trading levels stagnant. Entering the latter part of the month, bullish sentiment gradually strengthened; by September 1, spot quotes rose to 18,166.67 RMB/ton—a single-day increase of 0.93%—marking a modest, phased price hike. From a cyclical perspective, current prices sit at a low-to-medium level within the annual cycle, though short-term prices (10-day and 20-day cycles) have reached the high end of the range, signaling potential downward pressure following the recent rebound.

1. Cost-Side Analysis

Supply for upstream raw materials—adipic acid and adiponitrile—remained relatively ample, and prices for these basic feedstocks did not see sharp spikes. Consequently, the cost floor for PA66 production provided only moderate support, failing to trigger a cost-driven rally. While production margins improved and plant operating rates steadily recovered, costs did not provide the strong momentum needed for a sustained surge in spot prices; the slight end-of-month rise was driven primarily by spot supply-demand dynamics rather than cost-push pressure.

2. Supply and Demand Analysis

On the supply side, operations at major domestic PA66 plants remained generally stable, ensuring sufficient industry-wide supply without any shortage of goods. As prices recovered from earlier lows, some manufacturers showed a stronger willingness to hold firm on prices, providing a degree of support for spot rates. On the demand side, August is traditionally a slow season for downstream sectors such as engineering plastics, modified plastics, and injection molding. Downstream factories purchased strictly according to need and maintained low inventories, showing little inclination to stock up in bulk; the release of essential demand was gradual, limiting upward momentum. The overall market landscape—characterized by ample supply and a moderate recovery in essential demand—constrained price growth, making a sustained, sharp rally unlikely.

II. Short-Term Market Outlook

In the short term, the PA66 market is expected to maintain a trend of fluctuating strength while facing downward pressure at higher price levels. Moving average indicators signal a bullish bias, with solid price support at the low end limiting downside potential; however, prices over the short-term 10-day and 20-day periods have reached a high range. Coupled with insufficient follow-through in downstream demand, the momentum for a further sharp rally in the near term is weak, making range-bound fluctuation the most likely scenario and slowing the pace of upward movement. From a medium- to long-term perspective, current annual price levels remain relatively low, retaining potential for upside.

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