Price trend

MIBK prices fluctuated upward overall in August, with the market's center of gravity shifting higher.

The SunSirs benchmark price started the month at approximately 9,466 RMB/ton and rose to 10,216 RMB/ton by month-end, marking a monthly increase of about 8%.

Mainstream spot prices in East China: 9,700-9,800 RMB/ton at the start of the month; 10,300-10,500 RMB/ton (tax-inclusive, ex-warehouse) by month-end.

Market trajectory: Prices saw tentative gains in early August and continued to rise mid-month, driven by successive price adjustments for acetone. In late August, the upward momentum slowed, and prices consolidated within a narrow range at high levels; holders largely maintained firm price stances, while downstream buyers remained cautious about chasing higher prices.

Basis perspective: The SunSirs 10/20-day moving average spread remained positive, indicating a bullish short-term trend; however, as prices approached the 60-day resistance zone, the scope for further gains was limited.

Cost side: Acetone prices continued to strengthen, providing a firm cost floor.

Acetone is the primary raw feedstock for MIBK. In August, domestic phenol-acetone producers—such as Lihuayi Weiyuan and Longjiang Chemical—repeatedly raised ex-factory prices. The steady rise in acetone spot prices directly drove up MIBK production costs, forcing manufacturers to raise their quotes in tandem; consequently, corporate losses narrowed, and the willingness to hold firm on prices increased significantly.

Supply side: localized maintenance and tightening of circulating supply.

While overall operating rates for major domestic units remain satisfactory, some supporting or small-to-medium-sized units have reduced loads due to short-term maintenance. Rising import costs and a narrowing arbitrage window have limited the volume of incoming shipments. Producers are prioritizing the fulfillment of long-term contracts, resulting in scarce spot availability; inventory levels remain low-to-neutral, with no significant pressure for stock accumulation.

Demand side: Anticipation of the traditional peak season and the release of essential restocking needs.

Downstream industries—including coatings, rubber antioxidants, and adhesives—have begun stocking up ahead of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, with essential restocking by end-user factories increasing in the latter half of August. However, as downstream profit margins remain modest, there is little appetite to chase high prices; purchasing is largely driven by immediate needs. Consequently, the demand recovery has been moderate rather than explosive, resulting in a gradual upward price trajectory—a pattern characterized by cost-push increases and demand providing support without triggering a surge in volume.

Manufacturers: Proactively raising prices due to cost pressures while holding back supply to support price levels;

Traders: Adjusting offers upward in line with market trends, prioritizing rapid turnover, and exercising caution regarding inventory accumulation;

Downstream buyers: Replenishing stocks at lower price points but adopting a wait-and-see approach at higher levels, with transactions largely driven by essential demand;

Constraints: Limited downstream purchasing power prevents sharp, unilateral price surges, resulting in a market characterized by gradual, incremental gains and fluctuations at high levels.

Market Outlook (September)

Bullish factors: Acetone price trends, the materialization of the traditional peak season for downstream demand, and scheduled plant maintenance; technically, the bullish moving average alignment remains intact, suggesting the prevailing strong trend will persist unless key support levels are breached.

Bearish factors: Increased downstream resistance following price hikes and sluggish trading at high price levels; MIBK's upward momentum would rapidly fade if feedstock costs soften and prices fall below critical support levels.

Forecast: Expect volatility with a bullish bias in the short term; the extent of any gains depends largely on acetone price movements and the sustainability of downstream operating rates. From a technical perspective, the 10,000 RMB/ton mark is a key level to watch: holding above it would sustain high-level trading, while a drop below it would likely shift the market back to a weak consolidation phase.

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