I. Price Performance

As of August 31, the CCI daily thermal coal indices rose across the board. The price for 5,500 kcal coal was quoted at 889 RMB/tonne (up 9 RMB/day), while 5,000 kcal and 4,500 kcal coal were quoted at 798 RMB/tonne and 715 RMB/tonne, respectively (both up 9 RMB/day).

Price increases were more pronounced at the Dianshigou rail-loading station in the production area, with prices for all calorific grades rising by 20 RMB/tonne. Truck-loading prices stood at 560 RMB/tonne for 4,300 kcal, 523 RMB/tonne for 4,000 kcal, 504 RMB/tonne for 3,800 kcal, and 455 RMB/tonne for 3,500 kcal; the upward momentum at the source was stronger than in the port market.

II. Supply Side: Major Producing Areas Limit Volume to Support Prices; Spot Resources Tighten

At month-end, major producing areas faced safety inspections alongside concentrated mine maintenance. Coal mines generally adopted a strategy of limiting volume to support prices, leading to a noticeable contraction in effective supply at the pithead. Mines continuously raised pithead sales prices; prices for some legacy contracts approached the cost of default, increasing the pressure on traders to fulfill contracts and further reducing the volume of spot coal circulating in the market.

Stable demand from non-power sectors—such as metallurgy and chemicals—provided a floor for coal prices at the source. Driven by the sharp rise in source prices, the cost inversion for shipping coal from production areas to ports widened to over 50 RMB/tonne; consequently, traders' willingness to consolidate cargo at ports dropped significantly, resulting in reduced port arrivals. With low-cost inventory from earlier periods depleted and restocking costs rising, some traders withheld stock or suspended quotes, further shrinking the volume of tradable cargo at ports.

Rising domestic coal prices pushed up overseas coal prices, narrowing the spread between domestic and foreign markets. As the cost-effectiveness of imported coal declined, some end-users shifted their purchasing toward domestic spot resources.

III. Ports and Downstream Demand: Marginal Decline in Daily Consumption; Limited Acceptance of High Prices

Inventory at Bohai Rim ports stands at 25.272 million tonnes, a day-on-day decrease of 200,000 tonnes; ports continue to see rapid destocking, and the supply situation at ports remains tight.

As the peak summer demand season draws to a close and the area affected by high temperatures across the country shrinks, daily coal consumption at coastal power plants is gradually declining; however, localized short-term heatwaves persist, meaning demand for thermal power has not vanished entirely. Power plants are receiving ample supplies of coal under long-term contracts and maintaining safe inventory levels; consequently, they are purchasing only to meet immediate needs and show little willingness to accept current high spot prices, resulting in a market standoff characterized by firm price quotes but weak actual transaction volumes.

In the shipping market, the composite index for coastal coal freight rates has retreated to 929.08 points, with rates edging down across various routes. Supply and demand for shipping capacity and cargo are basically balanced; with no significant increase in downstream transport demand, freight rates lack upward momentum and are generally holding steady.

IV. Market Outlook

In the short term, safety inspections and mine maintenance in major production areas will continue, providing strong support for coal prices from the supply side. Attention should now shift to the pace of autumn restocking by end-users following the expected decline in hydropower output in September. Unless there is a surge of concentrated restocking, the scope for further increases in coal prices will be limited; thermal coal prices are expected to remain range-bound at high levels in the short term.

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