Macroeconomics
1. [PMI] National Bureau of Statistics: In August 2026, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, signaling a recovery in business activity.
2. [Federal Reserve] Fed Chair Warsh delivered his most hawkish speech since 2009 at Jackson Hole, hinting at interest rate hikes if inflation does not subside quickly. Market expectations for a September rate hike rose from 35% to nearly 60%, with forecasts suggesting two potential hikes before March 2027.
3. [ECB] European Central Bank officials issued inflation warnings on the sidelines of the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium, leaning toward a September rate hike; meanwhile, the Bank of England maintained a relatively dovish stance, signaling no rush to act.
Agricultural Products
1. [Soybeans] According to an announcement by the National Grain Trade Center, and commissioned by Sinograin Oils & Fats Co., Ltd., an auction for 68,000 tons of imported soybeans is scheduled for September 2, 2026, at 13:30. The auction will be organized by the Grain Trade Coordination Center of the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration in conjunction with the networked national grain trade centers across various provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities. The soybeans were produced in 2022, 2024, and 2025.
2. [Soybeans] USDA weekly export sales data show that, as of August 20, 2026, cumulative U.S. soybean exports to China (mainland) for the 2025/26 marketing year (beginning September 1) totaled 12.36 million tonnes—unchanged from the previous week and down from 22.48 million tonnes during the same period last year. U.S. soybean shipments to China for the week were 0 tonnes, unchanged from the prior week. Outstanding sales (sold but not yet shipped) to China for the 2025/26 marketing year stood at 141,000 tonnes—unchanged from the previous week and up from zero during the same period last year. Total U.S. soybean sales to China for the 2025/26 marketing year (combined shipments and outstanding sales) amounted to 12.50 million tonnes; this represents a 44.4% decrease from the 22.48 million tonnes recorded during the same period last year, matching the 44.4% decline reported the previous week.
3. [Soybeans] EU data indicates a 25% drop in EU soybean imports for the 2026/27 marketing year. Brazil's market share increased, while Ukraine's share declined.
4. [Soybeans] For the week ending August 28, the benchmark CBOT soybean contract rose 3.9% to hit a two-and-a-half-year high. Gains were driven by sustained Chinese purchasing, deteriorating U.S. crop conditions, and the White House considering a 500-million-gallon increase in the 2027 biofuel blending mandate. While net sales for the week surged, gains were capped by a pullback in crude oil prices and the lack of finalized policy implementation.
5. [Soybean Meal] For the week ending August 28, the benchmark CBOT soybean meal contract surged 7.09% to a two-year high, fueled by strong export sales and increased net long positions held by funds. The USDA confirmed exports of 100,000 tonnes of U.S. soybean meal each to Germany and the Netherlands; total sales for the current marketing year are up 14.88% year-on-year, exceeding the USDA's full-year growth forecast of 13.4%. Fund net long positions rose to 97,036 contracts, a 17% weekly increase.
6. [Rapeseed/Canola] A report from the Canadian Grain Commission shows that for the week ending August 23, Canadian rapeseed exports totaled 118,100 tonnes and domestic consumption reached 267,300 tonnes, both slightly higher than the previous week's levels.
7. [Palm Oil] According to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, severe impacts from the El Niño phenomenon could reduce Indonesia's palm oil production by up to 3 million tonnes next year, a development likely to drive palm oil prices even higher.
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