Price trends
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic price of BDO rose from 7,900 RMB/ton to 8,091 RMB/ton between August 21 and August 28, marking an increase of 2.43% over the period, 3.96% month-on-month, and 6.87% year-on-year. Capacity utilization in the BDO industry remained low, and supplies were tight; furthermore, high-level transaction prices in online auctions bolstered the determination of suppliers to maintain firm pricing. With stable downstream operating rates, steady follow-through on contract orders, and some high-priced spot market restocking, the market center of gravity shifted upward amidst fluctuations.
Regarding supply, Sichuan Yongying's plant is undergoing maintenance, while the restart of plants such as Guotai Xinhua and Tunhe has led to an increase in supply volume. The bullish impact on the BDO supply side has weakened.
Statistics on plant operations at selected producers:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Tunhe in Lanshan, Xinjiang |
Phase 1 stopped on August 27, 2024. Phases II and III underwent major inspections on July 31, with plans to restart in early September |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
Phase III units have shut down, while phases I, II, IV, and V are running stably |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO unit, currently operating around 70-80% capacity |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
One unit is stable, while another unit is temporarily shut down due to boiler issues, and is expected to restart by the end of August |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The 60,000-ton BDO units for Phase I and 70,000+70,000 tons for Phase II are operating stably |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The second phase 140,000-ton unit was tentatively scheduled for 15 days of maintenance in mid-August |
|
Sichuan Tianhua |
The first phase at 25,000 tons per year and the second phase at 60,000 tons are operating stably |
Regarding costs, the price of calcium carbide has risen, strengthening cost support; however, continued sluggishness in downstream demand has led to resistance against further price increases. Methanol prices have also trended upward. With the prices of feedstocks—calcium carbide and methanol—rising, cost-side factors are exerting a bullish influence on BDO.
On the demand side, operating rates for downstream products—such as PTMEG, PBT, GBL, and PU resin—have risen, leading to increased demand. Factors influencing the BDO demand outlook are generally favorable.
Market Outlook:
With the tug-of-war between supply and demand intensifying, the BDO market is gradually entering a phase of stalemate following recent price increases. Regarding production facilities, there are both maintenance shutdowns and restarts; as supply volume is set to rise and support from the supply side weakens, analysts from SunSirs anticipate that the BDO market will undergo a period of consolidation and wait-and-see trading.
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
