According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, MTBE prices rose from 7,026 RMB/ton to 7,260 RMB/ton between August 21 and August 28. This represents a period increase of 3.33%, a month-on-month rise of 5.61%, and a year-on-year increase of 45.14%.
The domestic MTBE market trend has continued to shift upward. While international crude oil prices retreated after reaching highs—and the gasoline market similarly showed a trend of starting high and ending lower—the first half of the week saw a concentration of gasoline cargo deliveries. Market participants showed strong interest in purchasing relevant gasoline blending components, driving smooth MTBE transactions. Coupled with tight spot supplies, manufacturers actively pushed prices up to higher levels; even after crude oil prices fell, the MTBE market remained relatively resilient.
Regarding costs and crude oil: International oil prices declined. Key bearish factors included ongoing mediation efforts to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table, expectations for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and a easing of geopolitical and supply-related concerns.
On the demand side (specifically downstream gasoline): While international crude oil futures trended downward, refined oil prices rose against the trend. Refineries showed a strong willingness to support prices due to low production and inventory levels. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, intermediate traders have begun stocking up, and downstream merchants are maintaining high inventory levels for trading; overall market shipment performance has been satisfactory. The MTBE demand outlook is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side: Plants such as Shenghong Refining & Chemical, Haite Weiye, and Huayi Chemical may commence operations, potentially increasing resource supplies. The MTBE supply outlook is also influenced by bearish factors.
As of the close on August 27, the Asian MTBE market closing price rose by $19.65/ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling at $971.8–$973.8/ton. The European MTBE market closing price rose by $55.50/ton, with FOB ARA prices settling at $1,473.99–$1,474.49/ton. The closing price for MTBE in the US market rose by $10.45/tonne compared to the previous trading day, with the FOB Gulf Coast price settling at $1,143.91–$1,144.26/tonne (322.99–323.09 cents/gallon).
Market Outlook: Feedstock prices remain high, exerting significant cost pressure. Although the frequency of travel is gradually declining as the summer season draws to a close, expectations of an imminent hike in wholesale and retail price caps for refined oil products are providing a bullish signal for the oil market. Consequently, refined oil prices are expected to remain firm, and refineries maintain an intent to push prices higher; analysts at SunSirs believe the MTBE market may see further gains.
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