Following a pullback, supply-side support for methanol has gradually emerged; low inventories in the domestic interior and plant maintenance schedules have established a solid floor. While geopolitical tail risks persist—compounded by expectations of a downstream demand recovery during the "Golden September, Silver October" peak season—downside potential for the market remains limited. However, periodic inventory accumulation at ports and weak actual downstream consumption will cap the upside; the market is likely to see a range-bound upward drift, with a major trend-driven rally requiring further supply-demand catalysts.

Regarding news flow, although shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have seen marginal improvement, the resumption of Iranian methanol production and loading schedules has lagged behind expectations. Commercial insurance premiums and vessel rerouting costs remain high, and the framework for US-Iran negotiations has yet to be finalized; thus, geopolitical tail risks remain, capable of triggering sudden, sharp price spikes at any time. As a key source of my country's methanol imports, Iran poses a risk: any renewed disruption to shipping in the Strait could lead to a rapid downward revision of import volumes for September and October, and the expectation of tightening imports will continue to support methanol valuations. On the macro front, fluctuations in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index are affecting valuations across the energy and chemical sectors, though the direct impact on methanol is limited, with transmission occurring primarily through the crude oil sector. Domestic policies ensuring coal supply continue to constrain volatility in the feedstock costs for coal-based methanol; coal prices remain relatively stable, preventing any significant collapse in production costs. Key industry developments to watch include the actual restart schedules of MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) plants—such as those at Luxi Chemical—where resumption is still anticipated; a successful restart would serve as a major industrial catalyst driving prices upward, whereas continued delays would undermine the bullish thesis.

Fundamentally, the market exhibits a divergent pattern: tight supply in the domestic interior versus conditions at the ports. The scarcity of domestic supply forms the core basis for the market's bullish-leaning, oscillating trend. On the supply side, domestic methanol plants are nearing the end of their maintenance period, with the operating rate of sampled enterprises nationwide edging back to 74.09%. Several coal-to-methanol plants in the Northwest have reduced loads due to maintenance, leading to a temporary contraction in output; consequently, inland factory inventories have fallen by 14,000 tons to 312,000 tons. Order backlogs in producing regions remain substantial, spot quotes inland are firm, and long-term contract fulfillment is proceeding smoothly, providing strong underlying support for futures prices. Although some plants undergoing maintenance are scheduled to restart between late August and early September—raising expectations for a rebound in domestic output—the release of new capacity is limited and slow, making it unlikely that the current tight supply situation inland will be fully reversed in the short term. Regarding imports, a concentration of vessel arrivals in late August pushed total methanol inventories at major domestic ports to 685,600 tons (an increase of 18,600 tons); inventory accumulation in East China is currently capping the potential for a price rebound. However, it is important to note that this accumulation stems primarily from the unloading of previously delayed cargoes rather than a sustained surge in large-scale overseas supply. Should tensions in the Taiwan Strait escalate again, import volumes for September could face significant downward revision, potentially shifting port inventory trends back toward destocking.

On the demand side, the market reflects a contrast between weak current realities and positive expectations. MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins), the largest downstream sector, is maintaining an overall operating rate of around 69.51%. While some integrated plants are undergoing maintenance, processing margins for merchant MTO plants (which rely on external feedstock) have recovered; purchasing remains driven by immediate needs, with no large-scale restocking yet observed. As high temperatures subside and the market anticipates the "Golden September, Silver October" peak season, expectations for MTO plant restarts and a recovery in traditional downstream operating rates are gaining momentum. There is room for marginal improvement in sectors such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE, suggesting a likely shift from "just-in-time" purchasing to moderate restocking. Regarding costs, thermal coal prices remain stable, allowing domestic coal-to-methanol producers to maintain processing margins; the cost floor is solid, making a sharp drop below cost levels unlikely. Although high prices can trigger negative feedback from downstream sectors, a recent price correction has lowered feedstock costs and improved downstream acceptance, thereby alleviating the pressure from negative feedback. (Source: Galaxy Futures)

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