On August 28, 2026, the composite benchmark price for LLDPE (tracked by SunSirs) stood at 8,275 RMB/ton, up from 8,275 RMB/ton on August 1. Throughout August, the spot market exhibited a trend of fluctuating upward, with the price center shifting notably higher; current prices sit within the median range for the year. While market inquiry activity is positive, downstream follow-through is uneven; actual orders remain dominated by small-volume purchases driven by immediate needs, with few instances of large-scale, bulk stockpiling.

Customs data for July polyethylene (PE) trade shows that total imports of primary-form PE reached 523,800 tons—a slight month-on-month recovery but still a significant year-on-year decline. Lingering disruptions to shipping routes from the Middle East have caused noticeable volatility in the arrival pace of overseas cargoes, keeping LLDPE import volumes relatively low and reinforcing the trend of domestic self-sufficiency and substitution. PE exports in July totaled 217,200 tons, a marked month-on-month drop; rising domestic spot prices narrowed the arbitrage window for exports, and procurement orders from Southeast Asia contracted. Consequently, the diversion of domestic supply to export markets weakened, leaving more volume within the domestic circulation market. Cumulative import volumes for January–July fell sharply year-on-year, while cumulative exports remained high, maintaining the broader trade pattern of shrinking imports and expanding exports.

Drivers behind the domestic PE price rise in August: Early in the month, market sentiment was dampened by the off-season, leading to a brief period of weak consolidation. By mid-month, domestic refining and petrochemical facilities entered a concentrated maintenance cycle; multiple units shut down or reduced operating loads, causing an industry-wide decline in operating rates. This periodic tightening of available market supply served as the core internal driver for the price rally. Simultaneously, international crude oil prices remained high due to geopolitical factors, providing sustained cost support that further pushed up spot market quotes. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural film sector has seen an early start to its peak season; operating rates at greenhouse film and PO film processing plants are gradually rising, generating some incremental "must-have" demand. However, other downstream segments—such as packaging and injection molding—remain in their traditional off-season, with limited release of end-user orders. Downstream buyers are generally purchasing strictly according to immediate needs; given the rise in raw material costs, there is little appetite to stock up at higher price points. Insufficient trading volume during the price rally has constrained the extent of the upward movement. Regarding inventory, stock levels across the supply chain remain relatively low, providing a floor for prices, though there has been no large-scale, proactive destocking.

Market outlook for the final week of August: The supply-tightening effect caused by short-term maintenance shutdowns persists, and support from crude oil costs has not yet fully faded, keeping spot prices supported at high levels. However, it is important to note that some units undergoing maintenance are nearing their restart windows, creating expectations for a replenishment of supply; meanwhile, downstream sectors have yet to show explosive restocking activity, causing upward momentum to gradually weaken. Overall, LLDPE prices are likely to fluctuate at high levels during the last week of August; the probability of a sustained, sharp unilateral rally is low, and market volatility will largely track the progress of plant maintenance and the pace at which agricultural film orders materialize.

Key factors to monitor going forward include the actual restart of domestic production units, crude oil price fluctuations, the arrival of imported cargoes, and the strength of order fulfillment in the agricultural film sector during its peak season. If actual purchasing for agricultural films continues to materialize, spot prices may remain firm; conversely, if a wave of plant restarts coincides with insufficient demand follow-through, there is a risk that prices could spike and then retreat.

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