In accordance with pricing regulations, the second adjustment of the month is taking place tonight. The first adjustment in August saw a drop of over 0.18 RMB per liter, reversing the trend of two consecutive sharp increases in July; however, the price reduction from that previous adjustment is now being wiped out by tonight's hike.

After previous consecutive increases totaling nearly 0.80 RMB per liter, prices are rising again by over 360 RMB per tonne this August.

Between July 17 and July 31, oil prices surged twice, rising by a combined total of over 945 RMB per tonne—pushing prices up by nearly 0.80 RMB per liter. Although a drop on the evening of August 14 halted the upward trend and kept 92-octane gasoline in the "7-RMB range," that reduction lasted only half a month. Tonight's hike of over 360 RMB per tonne will push prices back into the "8-RMB range" starting tomorrow.

Domestic gas stations will implement the second price adjustment of August at midnight (24:00 on August 28). Following a 10-working-day tracking period, the final adjustment sees gasoline prices rise by 375 RMB per tonne and diesel by 360 RMB per tonne; in per-liter terms, this translates to a sharp increase of 0.28 to 0.34 RMB per liter.

Starting tomorrow, 92-octane gasoline prices in most regions will enter the "8-RMB range." Following the previous drop, prices had fallen below 7.81 RMB per liter in most areas; however, with tonight's increase of over 0.28 RMB per liter, prices will exceed 8 RMB per liter in most regions, marking a return to the "8-RMB range." Prices for 95-octane gasoline and No. 0 diesel will also rise.

The new price adjustment window for domestic refined oil opens at midnight on August 28. Based on a consensus of institutional views, domestic fuel prices are expected to rise in this round of adjustments.

During the current retail fuel price adjustment cycle (from 24:00 on August 14 to 24:00 on August 28), international crude oil prices initially rose before falling; however, the crude oil price change rate remained in positive territory. Consequently, the window for a domestic retail fuel price hike is expected to open at 24:00 on August 28.

Supported by factors such as persistent tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns over global oil supply disruptions caused by impeded passage through the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil prices rose for six consecutive trading days during this cycle. Although prices subsequently fell following a temporary easing of Middle East tensions, the crude oil price change rate remained positive.

As of the close of overseas markets on August 26, the reference crude oil price change rate for the ninth domestic working day stood at 8.18%. Gasoline and diesel prices are projected to increase by 360 RMB per tonne; in per-liter terms, this translates to hikes of 0.28 RMB for 92-octane gasoline, 0.30 RMB for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.31 RMB for No. 0 diesel.

Domestic fuel prices have undergone sixteen adjustment rounds so far this year, resulting in a pattern of "ten increases, five decreases, and one suspension." Notably, the state implemented regulatory measures on fuel prices for two consecutive rounds to mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices. If the price hike proceeds as expected, the overall pattern for the year will shift to "eleven increases, five decreases, and one suspension."

In accordance with the "ten-working-day" rule, the window for the next round of retail fuel price adjustments will open at 24:00 on September 11, 2026.

Looking ahead, the tug-of-war between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz continues, and the US plans to impose severe economic sanctions on Iran. Tanker traffic through the strait remains below pre-conflict levels, and Middle East crude oil exports face ongoing disruptions. Coupled with the fact that the Northern Hemisphere is still in the peak travel season—leading to tight fuel supply-demand fundamentals—and historically low US crude oil inventories, Brent crude prices are finding strong support around the $80-per-barrel level in the short term. Looking ahead to next week, if the US and Iran advance peace talks, international oil prices are likely to trend downward with some volatility; however, if both sides resort to hardline tactics again, a return to an upward price trajectory cannot be ruled out.

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