Price trends

According to data from the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the market price for ferrosilicon (Grade: FeSi75-B; Size: natural lumps) in the Ningxia region held steady at 5,628 RMB/ton on August 24 before rising to 5,658 RMB/ton on August 25—an increase of 30 RMB/ton, or 0.53%. While futures prices have shown tentative upward movement and sentiment in the spot market has warmed slightly, the single-day gain remains limited; the market has yet to break out of its range-bound pattern, and a "wait-and-see" attitude continues to prevail.

Upstream semi-coke market situation

Cost support for semi-coke remains relatively stable. Market quotations in key production areas are currently showing little fluctuation; coal mines are ensuring ample supply, preventing any sharp rise in raw coal prices, while semi-coke plants maintain moderate operating rates, resulting in relatively abundant supply. However, occasional disruptions to ferrosilicon production caused by environmental and energy consumption controls—combined with a solid floor for smelting costs—limit the potential for a downward trend, making a steep price drop unlikely.

Supply and Demand Analysis

The current recovery in ferrosilicon demand lacks sufficient momentum; the recent price rally has been driven primarily by market sentiment and expectations regarding steel mill tenders, with weak fundamental support. Downstream steel mills are replenishing stocks based on immediate needs and show little inclination to build up large inventories. Meanwhile, operating rates in the foundry sector and other downstream industries are recovering slowly, and there has been no significant increase in end-user consumption.

Overall market inventory levels remain neutral, and manufacturers face little inventory pressure, leading some to hold back supply; meanwhile, traders are operating with low inventory and a cautious approach, meaning current stock levels are not driving a one-sided market trend.

A new round of steel mill tenders has yet to be finalized, though expectations of price hikes are fueling a slight rise in spot prices. Future tender pricing will determine whether this upward momentum persists: higher tender prices could strengthen the market, whereas prices falling short of expectations would carry a risk of a pullback.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is likely to trend upward, supported by cost floors and expectations of higher prices in steel mill tenders. However, given weak downstream demand, the sustainability of this rise depends on the outcomes of steel mill tenders and production fluctuations in key regions (specifically regarding semi-coke and major production hubs); consequently, the market is most likely to exhibit a fluctuating trend with tentative upward movement.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.