I. Price Trends

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,868 RMB/ton on August 25, 2026. Following a cumulative drop of 150–165 RMB/ton across three rounds of price cuts in early August, the first round of price hikes was implemented on August 24 (+50 RMB/ton for wet-quenched, +55 RMB/ton for dry-quenched). On August 25, major steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai confirmed a second round of hikes (+100 RMB/ton for wet-quenched, +110 RMB/ton for dry-quenched), effective at midnight on August 26. The cumulative increase across these two rounds—150–165 RMB/ton—effectively offset the earlier declines.

II. Market Analysis

Market Trading & Coking Coal Supply: Supply remains tight. While some coal mines in Linfen and Jinzhong, Shanxi, passed inspections and resumed operations, output volumes have not fully recovered; sporadic new shutdowns have occurred in Lüliang. Factors include normalized safety inspections and a scarcity of low-sulfur prime coking coal and lean coking coal resources; online auctions saw no failed bids and commanded high premiums. Customs clearance for Mongolian coal faced disruptions and declined. The average price of prime coking coal (Sulfur < 1%) in Lüliang, Shanxi, reached 2,200 RMB/ton, a monthly increase of 325 RMB/ton (+17.33%). Coking enterprises saw widening losses: the gains from the first round of price hikes were absorbed by rising coal costs. The average profit per ton for independent coking enterprises nationwide stood at -149 RMB/ton (with some samples reaching -203 RMB/ton). Operating rates for top-charged coke ovens in Shanxi dropped to 60–70%, while those for stamp-charged ovens remained around 80%. Market Overview: Hot metal output remains high but has dipped slightly; the average daily hot metal output across 247 surveyed steel mills stands at 2.3768 million tonnes (down 5,200 tonnes week-on-week), with a blast furnace operating rate of 82.8% and a capacity utilization rate of 89.25%. Steel mills' captive coke production remains largely stable at 473,200 tonnes per day. Coke inventories at these mills are tight, totaling 6.405 million tonnes (down 115,000 tonnes week-on-week), with days of available inventory dropping to 11.27 days (down from 12.95 days at the end of May); while mills are urging faster deliveries, purchasing remains primarily on an as-needed basis. Profitability is under pressure, with a profit rate of only 32.47% (down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week) and over 60% of mills operating at a loss; acceptance of successive price hikes is driven by the fear of supply disruptions rather than by profit margin expansion.

Steel Demand: Hot metal output remains high but has dipped slightly; the average daily hot metal output across 247 surveyed steel mills stands at 2.3768 million tonnes (down 5,200 tonnes week-on-week), with a blast furnace operating rate of 82.8% and a capacity utilization rate of 89.25%. Steel mills' captive coke production remains largely stable at 473,200 tonnes per day. Coke inventories at these mills are tight, totaling 6.405 million tonnes (down 115,000 tonnes week-on-week), with days of available inventory dropping to 11.27 days (down from 12.95 days at the end of May); while mills are urging faster deliveries, purchasing remains primarily on an as-needed basis. Profitability is under pressure, with a profit rate of only 32.47% (down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week) and over 60% of mills operating at a loss; acceptance of successive price hikes is driven by the fear of supply disruptions rather than by profit margin expansion.

III. Market Outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that the market is driven by several factors: persistent supply constraints on coking coal, production cuts by coking plants due to losses, and essential demand from steel mills operating with low inventories. The first round of price hikes has already been implemented, and a second round is highly likely to take effect on August 26; the market anticipates a total of around three rounds of increases. However, there are limiting factors: hot metal output has dipped slightly, and steel mill profitability hovers around 32%. If coke prices continue to rise after the second round, steel mills may ramp up blast furnace maintenance and curtail hot metal production, thereby increasing the risk of a negative feedback loop.

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