I. Macroeconomic Environment

This week, the US July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, and core CPI rose 2.5%; both figures declined by 0.1 percentage point month-on-month, indicating a marginal easing of inflationary pressure. Non-farm payroll data turned negative, with a net loss of 23,000 jobs, signaling weakening momentum in the labor market. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates stands at 60.1%, while expectations for a rate hike rose slightly to 39.9%. US Treasury yields trended upward; the 2-year yield reached 4.24% and the 10-year yield 4.74%, rising by 7 basis points (BP) and 6 BP, respectively. The 5-year breakeven inflation rate climbed to 2.34%, reflecting a notable rise in inflation expectations. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz (Middle East) provided safe-haven support for precious metals.

II. Base Metals

Copper

SHFE copper closed at 107,900 RMB/tonne, while the LME copper average price was 14,090.3 USD/tonne. Price forecasts for the coming period are 107,100–108,800 RMB/tonne for SHFE copper and 13,900–14,200 USD/tonne for LME copper. Copper mine supply is tightening, and inventories in non-US regions continue to decline; spot premiums on the LME and in the domestic market remain high, though elevated copper prices are dampening end-user consumption. Relevant listed companies include Zijin Mining, MMG, CMOC Group, Jiangxi Copper, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals.

Aluminum

SHFE aluminum closed at 23,835 RMB/tonne, down 1.39% week-on-week; the LME aluminum average price was 3,240 USD/tonne, down 2.12%. The forecast range for the coming period is 23,300–24,000 RMB/tonne. LME and domestic social inventories have declined, and aluminum product exports have performed well; however, domestic demand remains weak and real estate data is under pressure, with macroeconomic factors influencing prices. Relevant listed companies include Shenhuo Shares, Chalco, Yunnan Aluminium, and Nanshan Aluminum. Precious Metals

Gold rose 0.99% over the week, with a forecast range of 900–1,000 RMB/gram; silver rose 0.84%, with a forecast range of 11,000–18,000 RMB/kilogram. Cooling inflation and consumption data, combined with geopolitical risks in the Middle East, provided safe-haven support, though high US Treasury yields and energy prices acted as constraints. Relevant stocks include Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold, and Zhaojin Mining.

Lead and Zinc

Lead prices stood at 15,695 RMB/tonne (up 35 RMB/tonne for the week), with a forecast range of 15,700–16,000 RMB/tonne. Prices were supported by tight supply; supply and demand for scrap lead remained stable, while the lead-acid battery industry was nearing the end of its off-season. Zinc prices stood at 25,432.5 RMB/tonne (down 0.6% for the week), with a forecast range of 25,000–26,200 RMB/tonne. Macroeconomic volatility intensified, with mining-side dynamics and export trends serving as key battlegrounds.

III. New Energy and Minor Metals

Energy Metals

Lithium carbonate prices stood at 151,000 RMB/tonne (up 2.03% for the week), with a forecast range of 140,000–160,000 RMB/tonne. Support came from high downstream battery production schedules and inventory destocking, though expectations of increased long-term supply limited upside potential. Electrolytic cobalt prices stood at 300,000 RMB/tonne (down 8.4% for the week), with a forecast range of 290,000–315,000 RMB/tonne. Active destocking across the supply chain and weak end-user demand led to short-term volatility at lower levels. Electrolytic nickel prices stood at 130,200 RMB/tonne (up 1.56% for the week), with a forecast range of 125,000–135,000 RMB/tonne. Macroeconomic sentiment drove a rebound, but high inventory levels and weak demand capped the upside.

Strategic Minor Metals

Tin prices stood at 425,500 RMB/tonne (down 0.41% for the week), with a forecast range of 420,000–445,000 RMB/tonne. Macroeconomic sentiment fluctuated between bullish and bearish factors; while end-user demand remained weak, expectations for the "Golden September, Silver October" peak season provided support. Rare earth prices showed divergent trends: Praseodymium-Neodymium (Pr-Nd) prices initially fell but later rebounded amid a shortage of spot supply; Dysprosium and Terbium prices rose, supported by procurement from major manufacturers. Relevant stocks include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, China Rare Earth Nonferrous Metals, and JL Mag.

Other Minor Metals

Tungsten concentrate prices stood at 422,000 RMB/tonne; the market saw a tug-of-war between upstream and downstream sectors, with the off-season effect clearly evident. Molybdenum concentrate prices were 5,465 RMB/tonne-degree; upstream prices rose due to tight supply and strong demand. Antimony prices ranged from 100,500 to 103,000 RMB/tonne, remaining stable due to cost support despite weak demand. Magnesium prices were 15,850 RMB/tonne (down 0.63% weekly); supply and demand were loose, and financial pressure was significant. Indium prices ranged from 5,250 to 5,350 RMB/kg (slight decline); the market remained in a state of weak equilibrium with a supply-demand standoff. Relevant stocks include CMST, Xiamen Tungsten, Yunnan Tin, and Huayu Mining.

IV. Metal Price Ratios

The gold-to-silver ratio was 66.22 (down 2.25% month-on-month), indicating silver outperformed gold. The gold-to-copper ratio was 0.3221 (up 7.05% month-on-month), showing gold strengthening relative to copper. The copper-to-aluminum ratio was 4.43 (down 1.11% month-on-month), with copper weakening slightly against aluminum. The tin-to-copper ratio was 3.91 (up 1.46% month-on-month), with tin maintaining strength relative to copper.

V. Market Outlook

Non-ferrous metal prices showed significant divergence this week. Precious metals performed strongly, supported by geopolitical risks and inflation expectations. Among base metals, copper prices fluctuated at high levels, while aluminum prices trended downward due to weak demand. Energy metals (lithium and nickel) showed strength, whereas cobalt prices remained under pressure. Among minor metals, molybdenum prices rose, and tin prices fluctuated at high levels.

Going forward, key factors to watch include changes in Federal Reserve policy signals, the evolution of US-Iran tensions, downstream demand falling short of expectations, and risks associated with price volatility.

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