According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, MTBE prices rose from 6,610 RMB/ton to 7,026 RMB/ton between August 14 and August 21. This represents a period increase of 6.29%, a month-on-month rise of 0.38%, and a year-on-year increase of 40.39%.
The domestic MTBE market is performing strongly, with price levels steadily shifting upward. During the week, the US-Iran standoff persisted, fueling concerns over supply risks; international crude oil prices trended higher, effectively boosting market sentiment. On the domestic supply side, maintenance at Lihuayi’s conventional and isomerization units, combined with some major manufacturers withholding stock, further tightened market liquidity. Meanwhile, the gasoline market showed robust performance with improving production and sales data, significantly driving downstream enthusiasm for purchasing relevant gasoline blending components.
Cost Side: Regarding crude oil, international prices rose. Key bullish factors included the intractable US-Iran standoff and continued confrontation, with no signs of the Strait of Hormuz reopening in the short term; supply-side uncertainties continued to support oil prices.
Demand Side: In the downstream gasoline sector, rising international crude oil futures boosted market sentiment. Refined oil prices continued to climb, and refineries were highly motivated to raise prices. Traders in the middle of the supply chain engaged in price-locking orders, while downstream merchants maintained high inventory levels for trading, resulting in an active market atmosphere. Overall, demand-side factors for MTBE leaned bearish.
Supply Side: Ningxia Baofeng has scheduled maintenance, while Shenghong Refining & Chemical and Haite Weiye may commence operations; overall, resource supply is expected to increase. Supply-side factors for MTBE leaned bearish.
As of the close on August 20, the Asian MTBE market closing price fell by $8.36/ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling at $997.22–$999.22/ton. The European MTBE market closing price dropped by $2.75/ton, with FOB ARA prices settling at $1,386.74–$1,387.24/ton. The US MTBE market closing price rose by $2.76/tonne compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf Coast prices settling at $1,115.82–$1,116.18/tonne (315.06–315.16 cents/gallon).
Market Outlook: Feedstock prices remain high, exerting significant cost pressure. Although the frequency of travel is gradually declining as the summer season draws to a close, expectations of an imminent hike in wholesale and retail price caps for refined oil products are providing a bullish signal for the oil market. Consequently, refined oil prices are expected to remain firm, and refineries maintain an intent to push prices higher; analysts at SunSirs believe the MTBE market may see further gains.
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