According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke stood at 1,868 RMB/ton on August 19, 2026. Starting August 18, coke producers in Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia jointly initiated a first round of price increases (+50 RMB/ton for wet-quenched coke; +55 RMB/ton for dry-quenched coke), with implementation scheduled for midnight on August 20. While expectations for the hike's realization are strong, it has not yet been fully cemented, marking a critical phase in the tug-of-war between steel mills and coke producers.

Market Activity & Price Hike Updates: As noted above, coke producers across Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia jointly initiated a first round of price increases starting August 18 (+50 RMB/ton for wet-quenched; +55 RMB/ton for dry-quenched), effective midnight on August 20. Expectations for implementation are strong but not yet finalized, placing the steel-coke market dynamic in a critical period.

Cost Factors: Regarding coking coal supply, the resumption of production at halted or reduced-output mines in Shanxi has been slow (72 out of 192 halted mines remain idle). Additionally, coal washing plants in Yuyang have suspended operations for safety inspections, and customs clearance volumes for Mongolian coal have fluctuated. Supplies of low-sulfur prime coking coal remain structurally tight; the Mysteel coking coal index is approximately 1,813 RMB/ton (up 26.6 RMB/ton weekly), with low-sulfur prime coking coal in Linfen hitting a yearly high of 2,070 RMB/ton. Regarding coke producer margins, the national average profit for independent coking plants is -110 RMB/ton (Shanxi: -113; Inner Mongolia: -125; Hebei: -67), with some enterprises facing losses of up to 150 RMB/ton. Costs at the coking coal stage are absorbing the industry chain's profits; while costs provide strong support for the coke price floor, this cost pressure cannot be effectively passed downstream. Steel Demand & Pig Iron: The average daily pig iron output across 247 surveyed steel mills stands at 2.382 million tonnes, a weekly increase of 0.017 million tonnes. While blast furnaces previously under maintenance have gradually resumed production and "rigid demand" has improved marginally from recent lows, output remains down by approximately 0.0246 million tonnes year-on-year. Regarding steel mill sentiment: profitability ranges from 32% to 33.77%, with some mills operating at a loss or hovering at the break-even point; consequently, there is strong resistance to further increases in raw material costs. In-plant coke inventories total 6.5192 million tonnes (down 0.0525 million tonnes weekly); mills are maintaining low-to-moderate stock levels and purchasing strictly on an as-needed basis, showing no willingness to actively restock.

Coke analysts at SunSirs offer the following outlook: In the short term (1–2 weeks), there is a high probability that the first round of price hikes (50–55 RMB/tonne) will be implemented on August 20. The extent of losses among coke enterprises and the rise in coal prices have surpassed the margin steel mills have for suppressing costs. However, a second round of price hikes will be capped by the steel mills' 33% profitability level; unless there is a substantial increase in finished steel sales volume in September, a second hike is unlikely to exceed 50 RMB/tonne. Spot prices for quasi-first-grade dry-quenched coke are trending strong, with port prices expected in the 1,910–2,020 RMB/tonne range and ex-factory prices in Lüliang at 1,795–1,860 RMB/tonne. Futures prices near 1,950 RMB/tonne are subject to volatility from basis differentials and delivery factors, making it inadvisable to chase highs.

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