Since August, the price trend of polyester filament has tracked cost fluctuations, characterized overall by low-level oscillation in the first ten days of the month followed by a cost-driven rally in the middle of the month; market bullish sentiment has continued to rise, industry profitability has recovered, and business conditions have improved significantly.
Trading in the polyester filament market was sluggish during the first ten days of August, with prices consolidating at low levels. Mainstream quotes for POY 150D/48F in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions held steady around 8,340 RMB/ton, while FDY and DTY prices saw only minor fluctuations. Amid the high-temperature off-season, downstream weaving operating rates remained low, and orders for autumn/winter fabrics had yet to be released in volume; consequently, weaving mills restocked only small quantities on an as-needed basis, fostering a strong wait-and-see sentiment across the market. Compounding this, PTA prices fluctuated within a narrow range at the start of the month and international crude oil prices remained relatively stable, leaving no upward pressure on costs. With processing margins for filament remaining consistently thin and manufacturers lacking the confidence to adjust prices, the market continued to fluctuate weakly.
In mid-August, a significant shift in cost factors across the industry chain drove price increases across the entire polyester filament spectrum. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up international crude oil prices; this cost pressure cascaded through the crude oil-PX-PTA chain, causing the spot price of PTA to surge to 6,310 RMB/ton—a monthly rise of 6.13%—thereby substantially increasing filament production costs. Concurrently, concentrated maintenance of domestic PTA plants and disruptions to port logistics tightened the supply of raw materials, prompting filament manufacturers to raise their ex-factory quotes; by August 19, mainstream POY quotes in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region had climbed to 8,490 RMB/ton. On the supply side, filament enterprises proactively curtailed production and lowered operating rates, leading to continued industry destocking; with inventories of greige and finished fabrics at multi-year lows, price strength was further bolstered.
Analysts at SunSirs believe that, in the short term, there are no signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran; crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels, thereby solidifying the cost floor. On the demand side, the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking cycle for the textile industry is gradually kicking off; operating rates for weaving and texturing plants in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region are slowly recovering, and orders for autumn/winter apparel and home textiles are materializing. The pace of essential restocking is accelerating, continuously absorbing market inventory and providing a price floor. However, multiple factors are limiting the scope for further price increases: several PTA plants undergoing maintenance are set to restart simultaneously in late August, increasing raw material supply and weakening cost support; while downstream inventories of greige fabric are low, the growth in orders remains limited, and sustained raw material price hikes are squeezing weaving margins, dampening the willingness of downstream buyers to chase rising prices; additionally, filament prices saw significant gains earlier, and with profit margins restored, manufacturers are more inclined to move stock.
Overall, from late August to early September, polyester filament prices are expected to track cost-side trends, maintaining wide fluctuations at high levels; the phase of sharp, one-way price surges has essentially concluded. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include geopolitical news affecting international crude oil, the actual progress of PTA plant restarts, and the strength of the recovery in downstream orders for autumn/winter textiles.
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