On August 17, 2026, the SunSirs benchmark price for polysilicon stood at 31,333.33 RMB/tonne, up from 30,666.67 RMB/tonne on August 1; while the spot benchmark rose slightly this month, prices overall remain within an annual low range. Futures market sentiment was notably stronger than the physical spot market; the main contract surged intraday to hit a more than three-month high before retreating, ultimately closing lower—a pattern of opening high and finishing low. Although spot market quotes were raised, actual transaction follow-through was insufficient; a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailed, and confirmed orders remained limited.
An analysis of customs import and export data for the first half of 2026 reveals further improvement in domestic polysilicon self-sufficiency and a continued contraction in import volumes. Cumulative imports for the first half totaled 7,782 tonnes, down 30.6% year-on-year, with June imports at 851 tonnes—also a year-on-year decline—indicating a continued weakening of the role overseas supplies play in supplementing the domestic market. On the export front, growth remained modest; cumulative exports for the first half reached 11,748.65 tonnes, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.15%. Southeast Asia’s expanding photovoltaic manufacturing capacity has become the primary destination for domestic polysilicon exports; however, as August began, overseas downstream procurement slowed due to caution, and export orders failed to show significant volume growth, limiting the extent to which exports could divert domestic supply.
The most significant variable in the current market stems from policy expectations regarding the curbing of "cutthroat internal competition" (or "anti-involution") within the industry. Unlike past self-regulatory initiatives limited to the industry level, regulatory authorities are now intervening to ensure price compliance and advancing the revision of relevant regulations, thereby imposing institutional constraints on low-price dumping. Market expectations that polysilicon prices will return to a reasonable cost-based range have directly fueled a rise in futures market sentiment. Driven by these policy expectations, upstream polysilicon quotes were raised; this price transmission extended to the mid- and downstream segments of the industry, where quotes for various wafer sizes were also increased, signaling an attempt to pass on costs along the supply chain. However, the fundamental reality of the spot market has not improved in tandem; while manufacturers have raised their quotes, downstream wafer producers are holding high levels of raw material inventory. Faced with these higher prices, they remain cautious, prioritizing the consumption of existing stocks over active purchasing at elevated rates. Consequently, a divergence has emerged: futures prices are strengthening, yet actual spot market activity remains sluggish—characterized by numerous inquiries but few finalized deals.
Reviewing market performance since August, the month began with prices at previous lows, significant pressure on spot market circulation, and a continued buildup of inventory. As policy signals aimed at curbing "internal involution" (destructive competition) emerged, market sentiment improved rapidly, driving futures prices upward. Manufacturers followed suit by raising spot quotes, and wafer prices rose in tandem as producers attempted to pass costs down to the cell and module sectors. However, demand for terminal photovoltaic installations has not yet seen a substantial rebound, and there is a limit to how much the downstream module sector can absorb rising upstream costs, creating resistance to cost pass-through. On the supply side, industry production schedules remained high throughout August; large-scale production cuts have yet to materialize, and high inventory levels continue to weigh on the spot market, creating a tug-of-war between strong market expectations and weak underlying realities.
Regarding supply chain inventory, polysilicon manufacturers continue to see stock accumulation, and wafer inventories remain high; this persistent inventory pressure is a key factor constraining sustained strength in spot prices. Without actual transaction volume to back up price hikes and effectively reduce inventory, the foundation for rising prices remains unstable.
Looking ahead, expectations regarding policies to curb destructive competition will continue to support the market in the short term, leaving open the possibility of a volatile upward trend. However, the medium-term trajectory of the market depends on the actual implementation of these policies, the extent of supply-side production cuts, and the downstream supply chain's acceptance of price increases. If supply does not contract substantially and spot trading remains sluggish, high inventory levels will once again suppress prices, making the market vulnerable to a pullback after an initial surge. Key factors to monitor going forward include the effectiveness of policy implementation, changes in manufacturer production schedules, the volume of actual spot transactions, and the pace at which downstream photovoltaic demand is released.
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