Aluminum prices fell on August 14
Domestic aluminum ingot prices generally rebounded in August 2026, though they have recently experienced a slight pullback. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of August 14, 2026, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market stood at 23,883.33 RMB/ton; this represents a daily decline of 1.05% but an overall increase of 1.02% compared to the average price of 23,643.33 RMB/ton on August 1.
Reasons for the rebound in aluminum prices in August
The rise in aluminum prices in August was primarily driven by supply disruptions overseas; a natural gas supply interruption and significant capacity curtailment at Hydro’s alumina refinery in Brazil sparked concerns over tightening alumina supplies, while persistently low LME aluminum inventories amplified price volatility. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum production growth remains limited by the 4500-million-tonne capacity cap, and the continued destocking of social aluminum ingot inventories has provided a floor for prices; meanwhile, weak US employment data has cooled expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and weakened the US dollar, boosting valuations across the non-ferrous metals sector. However, the market is currently in a traditional off-peak season with sluggish demand from the real estate and home appliance sectors—supported only by the new energy industry and aluminum exports—and market reluctance to chase high prices will likely limit further upside potential.
Reasons for the recent pullback in aluminum prices
Aluminum prices retreated as several factors converged: the premium driven by earlier overseas supply tightness rapidly dissipated; natural gas issues at Brazil’s Hydro alumina refinery eased and production capacity resumed; and plans for restarting production at the UAE’s EGA aluminum smelter were finalized, cooling market expectations of a supply deficit. Additionally, long positions were closed out following the price surge, while high prices deterred downstream processors—who limited themselves to on-demand purchasing—resulting in sluggish spot market demand and a shift in short-term sentiment.
Aluminum Price Outlook:
In the short term, aluminum prices remain susceptible to volatile pullbacks, primarily driven by the fading of the premium associated with overseas alumina supply disruptions, profit-taking by long positions, and weak downstream buying during the domestic off-season for consumption. However, the domestic capacity cap and low global inventory levels provide strong support, making a sustained, one-way sharp decline unlikely; instead, the market is expected to shift toward high-level oscillation, with future attention focused on overseas supply fluctuations and domestic spot market trading activity.
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