On August 17, 2026, the SunSirs comprehensive benchmark price for methanol stood at 2,580 RMB/tonne, down from 2,635 RMB/tonne on August 1. Prices have retreated slightly since the start of the month, remaining within a mid-range for the year. Short-term fluctuations in either direction are constrained as bullish and bearish factors counterbalance one another, leaving the market without a strong driver for a clear directional trend; spot transactions are primarily driven by immediate, small-scale demand rather than bulk stockpiling.

An analysis of complete customs import and export data for the first half of 2026 reveals that geopolitical conflicts were the primary influence on trade patterns. Cumulative domestic methanol imports totaled 3.781 million tonnes, a year-on-year decline of 29.7%. Supplies from the Middle East—traditionally a key source—dropped sharply due to the dual impact of disrupted shipping through straits and local plant shutdowns; monthly import volumes trended downward, recovering only slightly in June as geopolitical tensions eased, though overall import volumes remained far below levels seen in previous years. The structure of import sources shifted accordingly, with an increased share of supplies from the Americas and Russia helping to offset the reduction in Middle Eastern imports. Exports saw a temporary surge, totaling 672,400 tonnes in the first half of the year—a massive year-on-year increase of 372.8%. A supply gap overseas between March and May opened an arbitrage window, allowing low-cost domestic methanol to flow into India, Japan, and Southeast Asia, effectively absorbing domestic surplus. However, as overseas plants gradually resumed production in June, the pace of exports slowed significantly; with overseas supply recovering further in August, the export market's role in diverting domestic surplus continues to diminish. Considering the maintenance cycle spanning July and August, the scale of this round of concentrated maintenance hit a new high for this period in recent years. Starting in mid-to-late July, a large number of coal-to-methanol plants in Northwest, North, and Southwest China shut down simultaneously, followed by additional million-tonne-scale facilities entering maintenance in August; the combined maintenance capacity for these two months approached 25 million tonnes. Coal-based plants accounted for the bulk of the maintenance, with some coke-oven-gas-based units also reducing operating rates. Consequently, the industry's overall operating rate fell to a yearly low, and the supply of domestic product tightened temporarily, providing sustained support for spot prices throughout the month. This maintenance cycle was characterized by a delayed schedule; as profit margins were decent in the first half of the year, many producers postponed their spring maintenance to the summer and autumn, resulting in a short-term supply contraction.

Reviewing price trends since August, the market remained relatively firm early in the month due to supply tightening caused by the concentrated maintenance, with inland producers raising their offers. However, overseas prices continued to weaken, closing the arbitrage window and dashing expectations for significant export volumes; the retention of large quantities of product in the domestic market gradually offset the bullish support provided by the maintenance. Downstream industries were simultaneously in their traditional off-season; operating rates for traditional chemicals like formaldehyde, dimethyl ether (DME), and acetic acid remained low, and MTO-linked units also underwent periodic rate reductions. With insufficient follow-through on essential downstream demand, buyers purchased only small quantities as needed and showed little willingness to stockpile, making it difficult for demand-side factors to drive price increases upstream. On the cost side, coal prices fluctuated within a range without significant unilateral movement, failing to provide sustained upward momentum for spot prices. Under the combined influence of these factors, the market shifted into a phase of range-bound adjustment, with persistent pressure for a periodic pullback.

Regarding the future supply trajectory, a large number of units under maintenance are set to restart successively from late August through September. Domestic operating rates will gradually recover from their lows, and the supply of domestic product will continue to increase; expectations of looser future supply are capping the market's upside potential. The tight supply balance resulting from short-term maintenance can only prevent a sharp price drop; it is insufficient to drive a sustained upward trend in prices. Regarding regional distribution, a concentration of maintenance activities in the Northwest has tightened local supplies and reduced inter-regional shipments. Meanwhile, port inventories in East and South China remain stable; regional price spreads have narrowed, leading to a decline in inter-regional arbitrage activity.

Looking ahead, the market remains caught in a tug-of-war between maintenance-driven price support and the combined pressures of off-season demand and expectations of production restarts, with spot prices continuing to fluctuate within a range. Key factors to monitor include the actual pace at which units under maintenance resume production, the volume of overseas imports arriving at ports, and the timing of pre-stocking by downstream sectors ahead of the traditional "Golden September" peak season. Without a significant surge in demand, a sustained unidirectional rally or decline is unlikely to materialize.

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