Price trends

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, caustic soda prices remained generally stable but sluggish last week. The market average price hovered around 639 RMB/ton from the beginning to the end of the week, marking a 25% year-on-year decline. On August 13, the SunSirs Chlor-alkali Index stood at 717 points—up 1 point from the previous day, down 66.31% from the cycle high of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021), and up 1.41% from the cycle low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2026). (Note: The cycle spans from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market Analysis

According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, caustic soda prices traded within a narrow range last week. In the Shandong region, mainstream market quotes for 32% ionic membrane caustic soda hovered around 590-670 RMB/ton. In the Zhejiang region, quotes for 32% ionic membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan were around 830-860 RMB/ton. Prices in Inner Mongolia remained stable, with mainstream quotes for 32% ionic membrane caustic soda at approximately 2,000-2,100 RMB/ton (on a 100% concentration basis). Regional market trends for liquid caustic soda showed little fluctuation last week, generally maintaining a trend of stability amidst weakness. With equipment maintenance scheduled for the coming week, the overall operating load is expected to remain around 80%. Downstream operating rates have risen slightly; however, while some aluminum plants are restocking moderately based on their inventory levels, alumina plants show little interest in spot trading and remain cautious with their quotes. Demand from non-aluminum downstream sectors remains sluggish, with purchasing limited to immediate needs; lacking positive drivers for improvement, the market remains under pressure.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that caustic soda prices remained stable but sluggish last week. While domestic downstream alumina producers have been taking delivery of goods, purchasing by non-aluminum enterprises has been lackluster; despite high inventory levels and a lack of substantial bullish drivers, most brands intend to maintain price stability amidst the tug-of-war between supply and demand. Overall, caustic soda prices are expected to consolidate, with the trend largely dependent on downstream market demand.

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