According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, MTBE prices fell from 6,760 RMB/ton to 6,610 RMB/ton between July 3 and July 10. This represents a 2.22% decline during the period, though prices rose 6.15% month-on-month and 30.64% year-on-year. The domestic MTBE market trended downward early in the week, constrained by the weak performance of international crude oil. Mid-week, negotiations between the US and Iran stalled, and concerns regarding supply risks persisted as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed; international crude oil prices subsequently rose. Supported by this news, manufacturers attempted to raise prices, but downstream demand failed to keep pace. Coupled with ample MTBE supplies, manufacturers once again offered price concessions to move inventory.
Cost Side: Regarding crude oil, international prices rose. Key bullish factors included the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and the lack of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which sustained supply risk concerns and bolstered oil prices amidst geopolitical instability.
Demand Side: Downstream, gasoline demand was dampened by typhoons, which reduced short-distance self-driving trips. Expectations of a drop in wholesale and retail price caps for refined oil products failed to provide a significant boost to the market. Consequently, gasoline prices at independent refineries in Shandong are expected to fluctuate slightly downward next week. The demand side for MTBE is currently influenced by bearish factors.
Supply Side: Production this week was impacted by the startup of units at Huizhou Yuxin, Dongying Shenchi, and Dongfang Hongye, although the shutdown of Bengu New Materials at the end of the week offset this somewhat; overall, the unit operating rate increased. The supply side for MTBE is currently influenced by bearish factors.
As of the close on August 13, the Asian MTBE market price fell by $4.09/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling at $1,029.52–$1,031.52/ton. The European MTBE market price rose by $10/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices settling at $1,343.99–$1,344.49/ton. The closing price for MTBE in the US market rose by $3.47/tonne compared to the previous trading day, with the FOB Gulf Coast price settling at $1,023.78–$1,024.13/tonne (289.07–289.17 cents/gallon).
Market Outlook: With international crude oil prices fluctuating, market participants remain cautious. While local supplies are relatively abundant and manufacturers are keen to boost sales volume, active export negotiations are helping to alleviate domestic supply pressure to some extent. Analysts at SunSirs anticipate limited volatility in the MTBE market.
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