According to the Economic Daily, the global commodity market experienced a round of intense volatility—rare in recent years—during the first half of this year, driven by a combination of geopolitical conflicts, shifts in monetary policy, and the restructuring of industrial demand. Energy and precious metals followed a "roller-coaster" trajectory, characterized by sharp initial surges followed by steep declines. Industrial metals fluctuated at high levels, buoyed by robust demand from the new energy sector and AI computing power, while major agricultural products faced downward pressure amidst geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical risk emerged as the central factor influencing the market throughout the first half of the year.

Energy markets experienced rapid surges and sharp drops. International oil prices showed high volatility; early in the year, prices traded at low levels due to expectations of ample supply. However, following the escalation of Middle East conflicts and disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude futures surged to $118 per barrel in early March—a 33.5% year-on-year increase. Prices subsequently fell sharply as tensions in the Middle East temporarily eased and expectations for the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz grew; Brent crude futures dropped by 38% in the second quarter, marking the largest quarterly decline since the pandemic began. Over the first half of the year, international oil prices retreated from a high of nearly $120 per barrel to around $70 per barrel by the end of June, reflecting significant fluctuation. Refined product markets were similarly volatile; in April, global refinery throughput fell by 7.3 million barrels per day compared to late February—prior to the outbreak of Middle East conflicts—driving up refined product prices and pushing refining margins to multi-year highs. That month, US retail jet fuel prices exceeded $170 per barrel (up 78% from February), while diesel prices neared $148 per barrel (up 73%). By mid-second quarter, as the refinery maintenance season concluded and supply-demand dynamics improved, refined product prices retreated somewhat. In June, jet fuel prices fell to $127 per barrel and diesel to $121 per barrel, though they remained 29% and 42% higher, respectively, than in February.

Driven by the Middle East conflict, OPEC+ crude oil production fell to 33.13 million barrels per day in May. Although production rebounded in June as tensions in the Middle East eased and exports slowly recovered, overall output has yet to return to pre-conflict levels; planned production increases largely failed to translate into actual supply. In contrast to the sharp drop in "OPEC+" output caused by geopolitical conflict, oil production in "non-OPEC+" nations saw steady growth in the first half of the year. Average daily production for the year is projected to reach 54.83 million barrels, driven primarily by the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina—a trend that partially mitigated the supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.

The international natural gas market also faced significant shocks during the first half of the year. Since the onset of the Middle East conflict, nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies have been disrupted. Qatar, the world's second-largest LNG exporter, saw two key production lines damaged by the conflict, resulting in a combined capacity loss of approximately 12.8 million tonnes per annum; repairs are expected to take three to five years, and the North Field East expansion project has been confirmed to face a delay of over a year. By the end of June, Qatar's weekly LNG exports had recovered to only 20% of pre-conflict averages. In stark contrast, US LNG exports surged during the first half of the year, rising by more than 20% year-on-year and rapidly capturing market share to fill the supply gap left by Qatar and other nations affected by the geopolitical conflict.

International natural gas prices shifted from relative stability to extreme volatility. Prior to late February, prices in major markets—including Europe, Asia, and the Americas—remained relatively stable. Following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, prices in European and Asian markets skyrocketed. European natural gas prices (TTF) surged from around €36/MWh in February to over €55/MWh in early March, before easing slightly in early June. Asian spot LNG prices (JKM) saw the most significant gains; the landed price of LNG in Northeast Asia rose from approximately $9.85/MMBtu in January to $18.68/MMBtu by the end of May—an increase of 89.6%.

Metal markets experienced significant volatility; the precious metals market saw a rapid rise in the first half of the year before entering a period of deep correction, accompanied by a marked increase in volatility. International gold prices started the year near $4,400 per ounce and experienced a strong rally driven by geopolitical risks, de-dollarization trends, and expectations of monetary easing, eventually hitting a record high of $5,598.75 on January 29. Silver prices saw even more significant gains during the same period. However, the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East marked a market turning point; the resulting energy crisis pushed inflation to high levels, forcing the market to rapidly shift its expectations for Federal Reserve policy from rate cuts to rate hikes. This caused the US dollar and real interest rates to surge, triggering a chain reaction that reversed the pricing logic for precious metals and drove prices down sharply from their peaks. By the end of June, gold had retreated approximately 27% from its interim high, while silver’s decline widened to about 52%. Spot gold fell by roughly 11.2% in June alone, marking its largest single-month drop since October 2008. Despite the pullback, the average gold price for the first half of 2026 remained nearly 37% higher than in the same period of 2025. Continued gold purchases by global central banks provided medium- to long-term support, with net purchases totaling approximately 244 tonnes in the first quarter.

Driven by the dual engines of new energy and AI computing power, demand for copper grew rapidly; this, combined with a "siphon effect" on global copper resources caused by anticipated US tariffs, amplified price volatility. The result was a trend characterized by wide fluctuations at high levels and an overall upward shift in price baselines during the first half of the year. The average copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was approximately $13,150 per tonne for the period, a year-on-year increase of over 44%. In May, LME copper prices approached $14,000 per tonne, setting a new all-time record. International aluminum prices also saw a significant upward shift in their overall baseline during the first half of the year. In the first three months, LME aluminum prices fluctuated violently due to geopolitical factors; the monthly average price hovered around $3,340 per tonne—up approximately 26% year-on-year—with price volatility reaching its highest level in recent years. Between April and June, LME aluminum prices surged to a four-year high of $3,787.5 per tonne in early June before rapidly reversing course; by the end of the month, they had retreated to around $3,170 per tonne, effectively returning to levels seen prior to the Middle East conflict.

Agricultural markets faced increasing downward pressure. In June, the FAO’s international price index for a basket of major cereal commodities averaged 110.2 points—a 3.5% month-on-month decline, though still 2.7% higher than the same period last year. Regarding wheat, the international market saw prices start high, fluctuate at elevated levels, and then decline. Prices rose significantly in the first quarter as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz drove up fertilizer and energy costs; in the second quarter, prices retreated as wheat harvesting in the Northern Hemisphere increased supplies. International wheat prices fell 4.4% month-on-month in June, though overall levels remained well above those of the previous year. The international corn market followed a pattern of initial gains followed by a decline. The international soybean market experienced wide fluctuations overall; in the first quarter, driven by factors such as biodiesel policies and geopolitical conflicts, soybean futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) strengthened, briefly approaching a high of 1,230 cents per bushel in mid-March. In June, however, CBOT soybean prices weakened for the first time after five consecutive months of gains, dropping to around 1,120 cents per bushel mid-month—a decline of over 5% for the month.

In the second half of the year, significant volatility in global commodity markets is likely to persist, driven by uncertainties surrounding the situation in the Middle East and the trajectory of global monetary policy. In energy markets, the ongoing impact of the Middle East conflict remains a critical variable, with the pace of supply recovery and the timing of demand resurgence dictating market trends. Major energy agencies project Brent crude oil futures to trade within the $70–$95 per barrel range; however, should shipping through the Strait of Hormuz be disrupted again, prices could climb above $120 per barrel, whereas if supply growth exceeds expectations, they could fall to around $60. Regional divergence in international natural gas markets has become more pronounced: supply conditions in North America remain relatively loose, while supplies in Europe and Asia continue to be tight. In the metals market, precious metals and industrial metals are diverging in their price trends. The World Gold Council projects that gold prices will hover around $4,100 per ounce in the second half of the year, though some analysts anticipate an initial decline followed by a rebound, driven by factors such as rising real yields on US Treasury bonds and the dissipation of geopolitical risk premiums. Driven by demand from the artificial intelligence sector, international copper prices are expected to rise steadily in the second half of the year, with LME copper prices projected to trade within the $12,900–$14,500 per tonne range. Prices for other major industrial metals are expected to undergo range-bound adjustments. In the agricultural market, prices for key commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybeans remain bullish for the second half of the year, underpinned by supply constraints, rising costs, and the impact of a strong El Niño phenomenon.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.