According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the market price of #1 tin ingots in East China saw a slight rise this week; the average market price was 426,920 RMB/ton on August 3 and reached 427,550 RMB/ton by August 12, marking an increase of 0.15%.

During this period, tin prices experienced a "roller-coaster" ride characterized by sharp gains and steep declines: initially, tight mine-side supply and low inventories drove prices to a peak of 435,540 RMB/ton—triggering an overextension—while subsequently, wariness of high price levels and a marginal easing of domestic and overseas inventories caused a rapid pullback to around 427,000 RMB/ton.

Fundamentals

Supply side: The tight supply situation at the mining stage remained unchanged, though there were signs of marginal easing.

Supply-side constraints remain the core support for tin prices. The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa State continues to be hampered by the rainy season, mine site repairs, and limitations on the supply of production materials, resulting in a slower-than-expected recovery. Meanwhile, Indonesia has seen a sharp year-on-year decline in refined tin exports due to restrictions involving export quotas and local smelting policies, and the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has raised concerns regarding mining operations. Overall, the supply of tin ore remains in a state of tight balance.

However, there are signs of marginal easing: export shipments from Indonesia—previously stalled due to policy ambiguity—have fully resumed, suggesting a potential rebound in tin ingot imports from the country. Domestically, while raw material supplies for smelters remain tight, recent increases in processing fees indicate a slight easing of the supply crunch.

Demand side: Dual-track recovery provided resilience, but high prices dampened restocking.

Demand shows signs of a structural recovery, though overall volume remains constrained:

Semiconductor sector recovery: A rebound in semiconductor packaging and testing activity has driven a replenishment of solder orders, while the expansion of AI computing infrastructure has boosted tin consumption for high-end PCBs.

Surge in photovoltaic (PV) solder volume: Demand for PV ribbons has emerged as a secondary growth driver, with increased module production schedules fueling higher consumption of tin-based solder.

New Energy Vehicles (NEVs): Tin usage in automotive solder and power components provides stable support.

However, the consumer electronics sector is currently in its off-season; downstream buyers are wary of high tin prices, leading solder manufacturers to limit purchases to essential needs and show little willingness to actively restock. Trading activity in the spot market remains unstable due to seasonal factors and price trends.

Inventory side

LME Inventories: Stocks fell to 5,795 tonnes on August 7, marking a fresh historical low, while the spot premium widened. Inventories rose slightly to 5,640 tonnes (+50 tonnes) on August 10 and increased by another 50 tonnes on August 11; this two-day consecutive rise marked the end of the previous trend of continuous destocking.

Domestic Inventories: SHFE warrants stood at 5,199 tonnes on August 11.

Comprehensive analysis: Short-term fluctuation at high levels with a bearish bias

Downside risks: LME inventories have risen for two consecutive days, halting the ongoing destocking trend; downstream buyers are wary of high prices, limiting purchases to essential needs; on the macro front, the imminent release of US inflation data is fostering market caution.

Upside support: The underlying tightness in ore supply remains unchanged; LME inventories stay at historically low levels; and a recovery in demand from both the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors provides a floor for prices.

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