Macroeconomics

1. [Monetary Policy] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has issued its "Reform and Development Plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period," alongside nine supporting action plans for specific sectors. The plan outlines five key tasks, including: establishing a sound and prudent monetary policy framework and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system; continuously enhancing the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy; and building a modern financial market that is open, inclusive, dynamic, and resilient.

2. [Federal Reserve] Fed official Harker stated that "a number of" rate hikes might be necessary, though he declined to predict the specific number of hikes or the ultimate interest rate level. He noted that current interest rates are not imposing a significant constraint on the economy and that it is time for the Fed to take action. He does not believe inflation will subside on its own and sees no issues in the labor market, adding that the market complements the Fed rather than serving as a substitute.

3. [Bank of Japan] The "Summary of Opinions" from the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) July policy meeting reveals that multiple officials explicitly warned of intensifying upside risks to inflation and directly called for a pace of rate hikes that "could be faster than market expectations." Following the release of the summary, traders estimated the probability of a BOJ rate hike in September at approximately two-thirds, while the likelihood of a hike by October surged to 96%.

Steels

1. [Iron Ore] On August 10, iron ore trading volume at major ports nationwide totaled 915,000 tonnes, up 1.10% day-on-day; construction steel trading volume among 237 major traders stood at 60,400 tonnes, down 30.87% day-on-day.

2. [Galvanized Sheet] On August 10, the total trading volume for 154 surveyed galvanizing enterprises nationwide was 16,083 tonnes, a decrease of 510 tonnes (3.07%) from the previous trading day. The region recording the largest decline was East China, where volume fell by 442 tonnes (7.94%) compared to the previous trading day.

3. [Steel] Last week, the blast furnace operating rate across 247 steel mills stood at 82.32%, up 0.47 percentage points week-on-week; the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 89.38%, up 0.93 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills was 32.03%, down 1.74 percentage points; and the average daily output of molten iron was 2.3803 million tonnes, an increase of 24,800 tonnes week-on-week.

4. [Iron Ore] In July 2026, China imported 108.085 million tonnes of iron ore and concentrates; cumulative imports for the January–July period totaled 736.841 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%.

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