Macroeconomics

1. [Monetary Policy] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has issued its "Reform and Development Plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period," alongside nine supporting action plans for specific sectors. The plan outlines five key tasks, including: establishing a sound and prudent monetary policy framework and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system; continuously enhancing the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy; and building a modern financial market that is open, inclusive, dynamic, and resilient.

2. [Federal Reserve] Fed official Harker stated that "a number of" rate hikes might be necessary, though he declined to predict the specific number of hikes or the ultimate interest rate level. He noted that current interest rates are not imposing a significant constraint on the economy and that it is time for the Fed to take action. He does not believe inflation will subside on its own and sees no issues in the labor market, adding that the market complements the Fed rather than serving as a substitute.

3. [Bank of Japan] The "Summary of Opinions" from the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) July policy meeting reveals that multiple officials explicitly warned of intensifying upside risks to inflation and directly called for a pace of rate hikes that "could be faster than market expectations." Following the release of the summary, traders estimated the probability of a BOJ rate hike in September at approximately two-thirds, while the likelihood of a hike by October surged to 96%.

Textile

1. [Vinyl cyanide] Liaoning Kingfa plans to shut down one of its vinyl cyanide production lines—which has a total capacity of 260,000 tonnes per year—for maintenance lasting 15-20 days in mid-August.

2. [Cotton Lint] China Cotton Reserve Management Co., Ltd. has scheduled the sale of 8,015.57 tonnes (comprising 48 lots) of central reserve cotton via the National Cotton Exchange Market on August 11.

3. [Cotton Lint] On August 10, China Cotton Reserve Management Co., Ltd. listed 8,023.683 tonnes of reserve cotton for sale; the entire volume was sold, resulting in a 100% clearance rate. The average transaction price was 17,197.07 RMB/ton—an increase of 60.63 RMB/ton compared to August 7—with the price for the "3128B" grade equivalent calculated at 17,772.81 RMB/ton.

4. [Cotton Lint] According to data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of August 6, the national processing rate stood at 100%, remaining flat year-on-year and matching the average of the past four years. The national sales rate was 99.4%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year and 10.9 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years.

5. [Cotton Lint] For the period of July 31-August 6, 2026, the average spot price for standard-grade cotton across the seven major U.S. markets was 76.15 cents per pound, an increase of 2.45 cents per pound from the previous week and 13.86 cents per pound from the same period last year. Trading volume across these seven major U.S. spot markets totaled 3,508 bales, with cumulative sales for the 2026/27 marketing year reaching 2,277 bales.

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