Macroeconomics

1. [Monetary Policy] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has issued its "15th Five-Year Plan for Reform and Development" alongside nine supporting action plans for specific sectors. The plan outlines five key tasks, including: establishing a sound and prudent monetary policy framework and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system; continuously enhancing the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy; and building a modern financial market that is open, inclusive, dynamic, and resilient.

2. [Federal Reserve] Fed official Hammack stated that "a number of" interest rate hikes might be necessary, though she declined to predict the specific number of hikes or the ultimate interest rate level. She noted that current interest rates are not imposing a substantial constraint on the economy and that it is time for the Fed to take action. She does not believe inflation will subside on its own and sees no issues in the labor market, adding that markets complement the Fed rather than replace it.

3. [Bank of Japan] The "Summary of Opinions" from the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) July policy meeting revealed that several officials explicitly warned of intensifying upside risks to inflation and called for a pace of rate hikes that "could be faster than market expectations." Following the release of the summary, traders estimated the probability of a BOJ rate hike in September at roughly two-thirds, while the likelihood of a hike by October rose to 96%.

Plastics and Rubber

1. [PET] On August 5, the UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) formally initiated a safeguard investigation into imports of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin, following an application by ALPEK Polyester Limited. The investigation period covers January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2025. The product scope includes both virgin and recycled PET; the final definition is subject to the official English description.

2. [HDPE] During this period (July 31 – August 5, 2026), the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers stood at 78.69%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period.

3. [PBR] On August 10, the market for polybutadiene rubber (PBR) in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region trended upward, with spot traders slightly raising their offer prices. Currently, mainstream quotes for PBR from Daqing, Sichuan, and Dushanzi range from 13,500 to 13,700 RMB/tonne.

4. [Natural Rubber] On August 10, the natural rubber market in Qingdao remained largely stable with minor fluctuations, and traders made slight adjustments to their quotes. Mainstream quotes for 2024-production Yunbao/Guangkeng/Haibao rubber were 16,850–17,000 RMB/tonne; for 2025-production Yunbao/Guangkeng/Haibao rubber, they were 17,050–17,200 RMB/tonne; and for Vietnam 3L rubber, they were 18,150–18,350 RMB/tonne.

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