Last week, polyester filament prices surged early on, driven by the costs of crude oil, PTA, and ethylene glycol; however, with downstream weaving mills in a traditional lull between orders, there was little appetite to chase rising prices. Consequently, sales volumes retreated, and factories offered price concessions to move inventory, causing the market to pull back after the initial spike and settle into a pattern of fluctuation and tug-of-war. FDY prices proved relatively resilient, whereas POY prices were more volatile, with market activity dominated by small-batch replenishment orders.

I. Price trends of mainstream commodities tracked by SunSirs (mainstream specifications in Jiangsu and Zhejiang)

Weekly Market Dynamics: Early in the week, PTA and ethylene glycol prices strengthened, driven by rising crude oil costs; this pushed up polyester production costs, prompting manufacturers to raise their quotes. By midweek, downstream buyers resisted the high prices and showed little willingness to chase the market upward, leading to a rapid decline in sales volume. Towards the end of the week, manufacturers offered price concessions to move inventory; spot price levels retreated, the gap between quoted and actual transaction prices widened, and there was greater room for price negotiation.

II. Analysis of Each Segment of the Industry Chain

1. Raw Material Costs

PTA: Prices rose initially before pulling back during the week, peaking at 6,115 RMB/ton and subsequently settling at 5,850–5,920 RMB/ton. Spot supply tightened temporarily due to maintenance at certain plants, but the situation eased later as operating rates recovered.

Monoethylene Glycol (MEG): Port inventories continued to decline, and uncertainty regarding import arrivals lent strong price resilience; the market showed notable resistance to declines, providing a floor for polyester prices.

Crude Oil: Geopolitical volatility caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices, making this the primary disruptive factor for the polyester market. This directly drove volatility in the prices of both key raw materials; while filament prices tracked these cost fluctuations—rising and falling rapidly—demand failed to sustain the upward momentum, resulting in poor durability for price increases.

Stainless Steel Plates

The price adjustments for ferrous metals in late July did not include changes to stainless steel plate prices, resulting in a neutral impact on their pricing.

2. Supply Side

Operating rates in the polyester filament industry remain around 75%, a relatively low level overall. Factory inventories stand at 15–20 days—a moderate level for this time of year—though DTY inventories are elevated at approximately 30–34 days, resulting in significant destocking pressure. While supplies of certain specifications are tight, there is no overall shortage; market trends are driven primarily by costs rather than supply gaps.

3. Production, Sales, and Downstream Demand (Core Issue)

Filament Production and Sales: Sales volume surged briefly early last week but fell back to the 40–50% level during the latter half; on some days, the rate hovered around just 30%. Inquiries were sluggish as downstream buyers avoided chasing high prices, focusing instead on consuming existing inventories with little willingness to actively restock.

Weaving Sector: Loom operating rates in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region dropped below 60%, while dyeing plant operations stood at 40–50%. With summer apparel orders winding down and large-scale production of autumn/winter fabrics yet to begin, the industry is in a lull between order cycles. The market is dominated by small orders and repeat orders; greige fabric inventories are accumulating, financial pressure is mounting, and buyers remain cautious regarding high-priced raw materials.

Summary: While costs provide support, terminal demand acts as a hard constraint; upward cost pressure is not being accepted by downstream buyers, meaning prices inevitably fall back after spiking.

Market Outlook

Short-term (next week): Prices will likely continue to fluctuate in tandem with the crude oil–PTA–MEG complex, making a sustained, sharp rally or slump unlikely. If crude oil prices strengthen further, filament producers may attempt to raise prices, though the upside will be capped by demand-side constraints; conversely, if feedstock prices weaken, there is room for further price concessions on filament.

Medium-term: A substantial restocking phase in the downstream weaving sector—and a genuine improvement in demand—hinges on the release of a large volume of orders for autumn/winter fabrics, expected in late August or September. Until then, the market is likely to remain range-bound, with price direction dictated by costs and the extent of price movements determined by demand.SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.